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A fuzzy approach to qualitative cross impact analysis

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Listed:
  • Asan, Umut
  • Erhan Bozdag, Cafer
  • Polat, Seçkin

Abstract

This paper proposes a fuzzy approach to qualitative cross impact analysis. Cross impact analysis is seeking to find both direct and indirect relationships of variables relying on experts' decisions to structure and formalize judgmental forecasting. The knowledge is often uncertain or fuzzy when dealing with future events. In addition, experts prefer to use linguistic terms or fuzzy values in their predictions. Therefore, a qualitative cross impact analysis is represented in terms of fuzzy relationships. Four different approaches including crisp binary, crisp rated, fuzzy linguistic and fuzzy rated are applied to a specific case--the security appliances sector. The results are then compared depending on the variables' characteristics. The fuzzy approaches reveal different results than the crisp ones. The fuzzy rated approach makes it possible to "infer in a wider perspective" from the results and pick out hidden variables. On the other hand, the results of the fuzzy linguistic approach help in deciding for variables where indecision is high in other approaches. Finally, in contrast to crisp approaches, the fuzzy approaches are more successful in representing uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Asan, Umut & Erhan Bozdag, Cafer & Polat, Seçkin, 2004. "A fuzzy approach to qualitative cross impact analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 443-458, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:32:y:2004:i:6:p:443-458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fabrice Roubelat, 2000. "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process," Post-Print hal-02148889, HAL.
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    1. Roland Broll & Gerald Blumberg & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Thesenpapier: Constructing Consistent Energy Scenarios using Cross Impact Matrices," EWL Working Papers 2005, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
    2. Schubert, Johan & Moradi, Farshad & Asadi, Hirad & Luotsinen, Linus & Sjöberg, Eric & Hörling, Pontus & Linderhed, Anna & Oskarsson, Daniel, 2015. "Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 36-56.
    3. Ming-Tien Tsai & Hsueh-Liang Wu & Wen-Ko Liang, 2008. "Fuzzy Decision Making for Market Positioning and Developing Strategy for Improving Service Quality in Department Stores," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 303-319, June.
    4. Lanndon A. Ocampo, 2019. "Decision Modeling for Manufacturing Sustainability with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-41, February.
    5. Vögele, Stefan & Hansen, Patrick & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Prehofer, Sigrid & Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2017. "Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 937-946.
    6. Jodlbauer, Herbert & Tripathi, Shailesh & Brunner, Manuel & Bachmann, Nadine, 2022. "Stability of cross impact matrices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Beynaghi, Ali & Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Maknoon, Reza, 2016. "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 162-171.
    8. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2008. "Cross-impact balances," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3689-3700.
    9. Kadaifci, Cigdem & Asan, Umut & Bozdag, Erhan, 2020. "A new 2-additive Choquet integral based approach to qualitative cross-impact analysis considering interaction effects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Saner, Dominik & Blumer, Yann B. & Lang, Daniel J. & Koehler, Annette, 2011. "Scenarios for the implementation of EU waste legislation at national level and their consequences for emissions from municipal waste incineration," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 67-77.

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