IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v94y2018icp21-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deconstructing a complex future: Scenario development and implications for the forest-based sector

Author

Listed:
  • Aggestam, Filip
  • Wolfslehner, Bernhard

Abstract

This paper set out to review future-oriented projects to determine how the use of scenarios may affect EU forest-related policy. The work was carried out as a desktop study, utilising online search engines and databases to select appropriate future-oriented projects for analysis. The screening resulted in 36 case studies, most of which focused on scenarios for the environment, biodiversity and climate change but also covering territorial development, urban development, energy and transport. Only 2 case studies focused exclusively on forests. Most scenarios were developed to provide policy recommendations, they have as such, irrespective of the approaches and storylines used, in many cases influenced policy developments in Europe. The clearest example being that of climate and energy policy targets. The results demonstrate that most scenario frameworks are still not generating integrative visions of the environment that include forests in its entirety, reflecting sectoral fragmentation at the EU level. Forest-related scenarios will have to become more integrative to explore opportunities for policy actions aiming for a more sustainable future. This would require that future scenarios coherently assess impacts across sectors and adequately address the wide (and increasing) range of demands being placed on our forest resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Aggestam, Filip & Wolfslehner, Bernhard, 2018. "Deconstructing a complex future: Scenario development and implications for the forest-based sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 21-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:21-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2018.06.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934117306329
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.06.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke A. & Hengeveld, Geerten M. & de Jong, Rutger, 2017. "Analysing scenario approaches for forest management — One decade of experiences in Europe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 222-234.
    2. Maier, Carolin & Winkel, Georg, 2017. "Implementing nature conservation through integrated forest management: A street-level bureaucracy perspective on the German public forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 14-29.
    3. Seidl, Rupert & Fernandes, Paulo M. & Fonseca, Teresa F. & Gillet, François & Jönsson, Anna Maria & Merganičová, Katarína & Netherer, Sigrid & Arpaci, Alexander & Bontemps, Jean-Daniel & Bugmann, Hara, 2011. "Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 903-924.
    4. Franco, L. Alberto & Meadows, Maureen & Armstrong, Steven J., 2013. "Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: A cognitive style framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 723-734.
    5. Paula A. Harrison & Robert W. Dunford & Ian P. Holman & Mark D. A. Rounsevell, 2016. "Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 885-890, September.
    6. Joshi, Devin K. & Hughes, Barry B. & Sisk, Timothy D., 2015. "Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50years," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-302.
    7. Fabrice Roubelat, 2000. "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process," Post-Print hal-02148889, HAL.
    8. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Sanz-Hernández, Alexia, 2021. "Privately owned forests and woodlands in Spain: Changing resilience strategies towards a forest-based bioeconomy," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Hurmekoski, Elias & Lovrić, Marko & Lovrić, Nataša & Hetemäki, Lauri & Winkel, Georg, 2019. "Frontiers of the forest-based bioeconomy – A European Delphi study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 86-99.
    4. Hengst-Ehrhart, Yvonne & Schraml, Ulrich, 2020. "Back to the Forest’s future: Guiding principles of German forest stakeholders and their impact on the forestry sector," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hengst-Ehrhart, Yvonne & Schraml, Ulrich, 2020. "Back to the Forest’s future: Guiding principles of German forest stakeholders and their impact on the forestry sector," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Hengeveld, Geerten M. & Schüll, Elmar & Trubins, Renats & Sallnäs, Ola, 2017. "Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 245-255.
    4. Hurmekoski, Elias & Lovrić, Marko & Lovrić, Nataša & Hetemäki, Lauri & Winkel, Georg, 2019. "Frontiers of the forest-based bioeconomy – A European Delphi study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 86-99.
    5. Asan, Umut & Erhan Bozdag, Cafer & Polat, Seçkin, 2004. "A fuzzy approach to qualitative cross impact analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 443-458, December.
    6. Hallberg-Sramek, Isabella & Nordström, Eva-Maria & Priebe, Janina & Reimerson, Elsa & Mårald, Erland & Nordin, Annika, 2023. "Combining scientific and local knowledge improves evaluating future scenarios of forest ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Ameztegui, Aitor & Coll, Lluís & Messier, Christian, 2015. "Modelling the effect of climate-induced changes in recruitment and juvenile growth on mixed-forest dynamics: The case of montane–subalpine Pyrenean ecotones," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 84-93.
    8. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Serajuddin, Umar, 2020. "Tracking the sustainable development goals: Emerging measurement challenges and further reflections," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    10. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    11. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    12. Fan Wu & Ling-Hin Li & Sue Yurim Han, 2018. "Social Sustainability and Redevelopment of Urban Villages in China: A Case Study of Guangzhou," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, June.
    13. Nikos Chatzistamoulou & Phoebe Koundouri, 2020. "The Economics of Sustainable Development," DEOS Working Papers 2005, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    14. Figueiredo, Paulo N., 2016. "Evolution of the short-fiber technological trajectory in Brazil's pulp and paper industry: The role of firm-level innovative capability-building and indigenous institutions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Clasen, Christian & Heurich, Marco & Glaesener, Laurent & Kennel, Eckhard & Knoke, Thomas, 2015. "What factors affect the survival of tree saplings under browsing, and how can a loss of admixed tree species be forecast?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 305(C), pages 1-9.
    16. Oier Imaz & Andoni Eizagirre, 2020. "Responsible Innovation for Sustainable Development Goals in Business: An Agenda for Cooperative Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-20, August.
    17. Blattert, Clemens & Eyvindson, Kyle & Hartikainen, Markus & Burgas, Daniel & Potterf, Maria & Lukkarinen, Jani & Snäll, Tord & Toraño-Caicoya, Astor & Mönkkönen, Mikko, 2022. "Sectoral policies cause incoherence in forest management and ecosystem service provisioning," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    18. Renata Putkowska-Smoter & Krzysztof Niedziałkowski, 2021. "Street level bureaucracy in response to environmental pressure. Insights from forestry and urban green space governance in Poland," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 39(5), pages 900-918, August.
    19. Annelie Holzkämper, 2017. "Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-15, October.
    20. Sofien Tiba & Fateh Belaid, 2021. "Modeling The Nexus Between Sustainable Development And Renewable Energy: The African Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 307-329, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:21-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.