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Information contagion within small worlds and changes in kurtosis and volatility in financial prices

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  • Bowden, Mark P.

Abstract

An agent based artificial market is developed to determine the impact of the interaction between investors on prices. It consists of sentiment investors, a single fundamental investor and a market maker. Sentiment investors live in a small world network and have limited liquidity. They trade based on their assessment of the future direction of the market. Consistent with the social learning literature, there are two types of sentiment investors; social learners and experts. Experts only consider private information while social learners also consider the views of neighbours. It is found that the interaction between the agents generate kurtosis and persistence characteristics of volatility in returns. In addition, the level of kurtosis and volatility depends on the inter-connectedness of the network as well as the number of experts and the number of connections from these experts to social learners. Cluster coefficient and characteristic path length analysis show that kurtosis and volatility are lowest within the small world region of the network. This effect is negated as the number of experts increases beyond a threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowden, Mark P., 2012. "Information contagion within small worlds and changes in kurtosis and volatility in financial prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 553-566.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:553-566
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.01.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Laijun & Wang, Jiajia & Huang, Rongbing & Cui, Hongxin & Qiu, Xiaoyan & Wang, Xiaoli, 2014. "Sentiment contagion in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 17-23.
    2. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Georgios Sarantitis, 2016. "Convergence of European Business Cycles: A Complex Networks Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 97-119, February.
    3. Mark Bowden, 2015. "A model of information flows and confirmatory bias in financial markets," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(2), pages 197-215, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent based financial markets; Network economics; Information contagion; Volatility; Kurtosis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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