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Does investor recognition predict returns?

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  • Bodnaruk, Andriy
  • Ostberg, Per
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    Abstract

    Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483-510] shows that stocks about which not all investors are informed should yield a return premium. This premium depends on the shadow cost of incomplete information which in turn depends on the shareholder base, relative market size, and idiosyncratic risk. Utilizing a comprehensive database of Swedish shareholdings, we demonstrate that stock returns are positively related to the shadow cost. We also find that the shareholder base is negatively related to returns when controlling for size and idiosyncratic risk. Zero-cost portfolios based on the shadow cost/shareholder base yield substantial trading profits that are never positively correlated with the market and are only modestly explained by the four-factor model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 91 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 208-226

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:91:y:2009:i:2:p:208-226

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

    Related research

    Keywords: Investor recognition Incomplete information Stock market participation;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Chen, Hung-Ling & Chow, Edward H., 2011. "The impact of investor base on the costs of capital for IPOs," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 177-190, July.
    2. Chung, Dennis & Hrazdil, Karel, 2010. "Liquidity and market efficiency: A large sample study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2346-2357, October.
    3. Bouslah, Kais & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & M’Zali, Bouchra, 2013. "The impact of the dimensions of social performance on firm risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1258-1273.
    4. Autore, Don M. & Kovacs, Tunde, 2014. "Investor recognition and seasoned equity offers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 216-233.
    5. Sofía B. Ramos & Helena Veiga & Pedro Latoeiro, 2013. "Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws130605, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
    6. Green, T. Clifton & Jame, Russell, 2013. "Company name fluency, investor recognition, and firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 813-834.

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