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Cyber risk and the U.S. financial system: A pre-mortem analysis

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  • Eisenbach, Thomas M.
  • Kovner, Anna
  • Lee, Michael Junho

Abstract

We model how a cyber attack may be amplified through the U.S. financial system, focusing on the wholesale payments network. We estimate that spillovers of an attack on one of the five most active banks would impair 31% of the network, on average, with some days significantly worse. When other banks respond by liquidity hoarding, forgone payment activity can reach more than 2.5 times daily GDP. A reverse stress test shows attacks on groups of small banks can also impair a significant amount of the network. Interconnectedness through third-party providers and financial market utilities poses additional risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Kovner, Anna & Lee, Michael Junho, 2022. "Cyber risk and the U.S. financial system: A pre-mortem analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 802-826.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:145:y:2022:i:3:p:802-826
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Boyer & Martin Eling, 2023. "New advances on cyber risk and cyber insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(2), pages 267-274, April.
    2. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Giudici, Paolo & Leach, Thomas, 2022. "The drivers of cyber risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Paolo Giudici & Emanuela Raffinetti, 2021. "Cyber risk ordering with rank-based statistical models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 469-484, September.
    4. José Ramón Martínez Resano, 2022. "Digital resilience and financial stability. The quest for policy tools in the financial sector," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue NOV.
    5. Crosignani, Matteo & Macchiavelli, Marco & Silva, André F., 2023. "Pirates without borders: The propagation of cyberattacks through firms’ supply chains," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 432-448.
    6. José Ramón Martínez Resano, 2022. "Digital resilience and financial stability. The quest for policy tools in the financial sector," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue NOV.
    7. José Ramón Martínez Resano, 2022. "Digital resilience and financial stability. The quest for policy tools in the financial sector," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    8. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyber; Banks; Networks; Payments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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