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The dynamics of trader motivations in asset bubbles

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  • Caginalp, G.
  • Ilieva, V.
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    Abstract

    Asset market experiments are analyzed by distinguishing participants who are net bidders versus net offerers when the trading price is above fundamental value. We find evidence that the cash supply of the bidders diminishes and the cash supply of the offerers increases as the bubble forms. This suggests that the bubble is fueled by the cash of the momentum players and the reversal is caused by inadequate cash in their possession. The experimental data is also analyzed using asset flow difference equations with the result that both bidders are strongly influenced and offerers (surprisingly) are moderately influenced by price trend.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

    Volume (Year): 66 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3-4 (June)
    Pages: 641-656

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:66:y:2008:i:3-4:p:641-656

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

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    References

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    1. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Reitz, Stefan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Papers cond-mat/0012419, arXiv.org.
    4. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    5. Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    7. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    8. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
    9. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2004. "Multiasset Market Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(05), pages 596-616, November.
    10. David Porter & Vernon Smith, 1994. "Stock market bubbles in the laboratory," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 111-128.
    11. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Chen, Zhiping & Duan, Qihong, 2011. "New models of trader beliefs and their application for explaining financial bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2215-2227, September.
    2. Haruvy, E. & Noussair, C.N. & Powell, O.R., 2012. "The Impact of Asset Repurchases and Issues in an Experimental Market," Discussion Paper 2012-092, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Powell, O.R., 2010. "Essays on experimental bubble markets," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-4219264, Tilburg University.
    4. Volodymyr Lugovskyy & Daniela Puzzello, & Steven Tucker & Arlington Williams, 2012. "Can Concentration Control Policies Eliminate Bubbles?," Working Papers in Economics 12/13, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
    5. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2014. "Cash Inflows and Bubbles in Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Working Papers in Economics 14/03, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.

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