IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbrese/v129y2021icp612-620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces

Author

Listed:
  • Andersen, Jørgen Vitting
  • de Peretti, Philippe

Abstract

We introduce a new methodology that enables detection of the onset of convergence towards Nash equilibria in simple repeated games with infinitely large strategy spaces, thereby revealing the heuristics used in decision-making. The method works by constraining on a special finite subset of strategies, called decoupled strategies. We show how the technique can be applied to understand price formation in financial market experiments by introducing a predictive measure ΔD: the different between positive decoupled strategies (recommending to buy) and negative decoupled strategies (recommending to sell). Using ΔD we illustrate how the method can predict (at certain special times) participants' actions with a high success rate in a series of experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Jørgen Vitting & de Peretti, Philippe, 2021. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 612-620.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:129:y:2021:i:c:p:612-620
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.12.034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296319308008
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.12.034?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magda Roszczynska-Kurasinska & Andrzej Nowak & Daniel Kamieniarz & Sorin Solomon & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2012. "Short and Long Term Investor Synchronization Caused by Decoupling," Post-Print hal-00853991, HAL.
    2. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W. & Mayers, David, 1987. "The effect of large block transactions on security prices: A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 237-267, December.
    3. Linde, Jona & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2014. "Strategies and evolution in the minority game: A multi-round strategy experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 77-95.
    4. Daniele Nosenzo & Simone Quercia & Martin Sefton, 2015. "Cooperation in small groups: the effect of group size," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(1), pages 4-14, March.
    5. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-411, May.
    6. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2000. "Modeling market mechanism with minority game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-315.
    7. Müller, Wieland & Tan, Fangfang, 2013. "Who acts more like a game theorist? Group and individual play in a sequential market game and the effect of the time horizon," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 658-674.
    8. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2015. "Multi-period experimental asset markets with distinct fundamental value regimes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 314-334, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. Ioannou, Christos A. & Romero, Julian, 2014. "A generalized approach to belief learning in repeated games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 178-203.
    11. V. P. Crawford, 2014. "Boundedly rational versus optimization-based models of strategic thinking and learning in games," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
    12. Anauati, María Victoria & Feld, Brian & Galiani, Sebastian & Torrens, Gustavo, 2016. "Collective action: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 36-55.
    13. David Lamper & Sam Howison & Neil Johnson, 2001. "Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    14. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Minority games and stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 228-233.
    15. W. Brian Arthur, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning, Bounded Rationality and the Bar Problem," Working Papers 94-03-014, Santa Fe Institute.
    16. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 514-524.
    17. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
    18. Chong, Juin-Kuan & Ho, Teck-Hua & Camerer, Colin, 2016. "A generalized cognitive hierarchy model of games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 257-274.
    19. Challet, Damien & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 1998. "On the minority game: Analytical and numerical studies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 514-532.
    20. Magda Roszczynska-Kurasinska & Andrzej Nowak & Daniel Kamieniarz & Sorin Solomon & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2012. "Short and Long Term Investor Synchronization Caused by Decoupling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-8, December.
    21. Johnson, Neil F & Hart, Michael & Hui, P.M, 1999. "Crowd effects and volatility in markets with competing agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 1-8.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Post-Print hal-02435934, HAL.
    2. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02435934, HAL.
    3. J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Papers 2005.02337, arXiv.org.
    4. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01960900, HAL.
    5. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18038, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Post-Print halshs-01960900, HAL.
    7. Linde, Jona & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2014. "Strategies and evolution in the minority game: A multi-round strategy experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 77-95.
    8. Vee-Liem Saw & Lock Yue Chew, 2020. "No-boarding buses: Synchronisation for efficiency," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-34, March.
    9. Linde, Jona & Gietl, Daniel & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2023. "The effect of quantity and quality of information in strategy tournaments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 305-323.
    10. Roberto Savona & Maxence Soumare & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2015. "Financial Symmetry and Moods in the Market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3173-3182.
    12. Yamada, Takashi & Hanaki, Nobuyuki, 2016. "An experiment on Lowest Unique Integer Games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 88-102.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Antoaneta Serguieva & Hao Wu, 2009. "Financial contagion: evolutionary optimization of a multinational agent‐based model," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1‐2), pages 111-125, January.
    14. Gao-Feng Gu & Xiong Xiong & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Yongjie Zhang & Wei Chen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2021. "An empirical behavioral order-driven model with price limit rules," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Ferreira, Fernando F & Francisco, Gerson & Machado, Birajara S & Muruganandam, Paulsamy, 2003. "Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 321(3), pages 619-632.
    16. Liu, Yi-Fang & Andersen, Jørgen Vitting & Frolov, Maxime & de Peretti, Philippe, 2021. "Synchronization in human decision-making," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Katahira, Kei & Chen, Yu & Hashimoto, Gaku & Okuda, Hiroshi, 2019. "Development of an agent-based speculation game for higher reproducibility of financial stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 503-518.
    18. Andreas Krause, 2009. "Evaluating the performance of adapting trading strategies with different memory lengths," Papers 0901.0447, arXiv.org.
    19. Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir & Seaman, Tim, 2005. "A threshold model of investor psychology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 463-478.
    20. Ren, F. & Zhang, Y.C., 2008. "Trading model with pair pattern strategies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5523-5534.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:129:y:2021:i:c:p:612-620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.