Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population
AbstractThe dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2001mf01.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Zapart, Christopher A., 2009. "On entropy, financial markets and minority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1157-1172.
- J. Wiesinger & D. Sornette & J. Satinover, 2013. "Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 475-492, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxine Collett).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.