Financial Contagion: Evolutionary Optimisation of a Multinational Agent-Based Model
AbstractOver the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during a crisis are referred to asfinancial contagion. We simulate crisis transmission in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although the phenomenon hasbeen extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise cross-market linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable in developing appropriate riskmanagement strategies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2444.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
financial contagion; minority/majority game; agent-based model; evolutionary parameter optimisation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001.
"Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 514-524.
- Damien Challet & Matteo Marsili & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2001. "Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games," Papers cond-mat/0101326, arXiv.org.
- Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2006. "Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 38-42.
- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
- Derrick Reagle & Dominick Salvatore, 2000. "Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 247-259, July.
- Chengling Gou, 2006. "The Simulation of Financial Markets by an Agent-Based Mix-Game Model," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(3), pages 6.
- Kaizoji, Taisei, 2001. "A model of international financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 279-293.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Johnson, Neil F. & Lamper, David & Jefferies, Paul & Hart, Michael L. & Howison, Sam, 2001. "Application of multi-agent games to the prediction of financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 222-227.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129.
- Shimokawa, Tetsuya & Suzuki, Kyoko & Misawa, Tadanobu, 2007. "An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 207-225.
- Lettau, Martin, 1997. "Explaining the facts with adaptive agents: The case of mutual fund flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1117-1147, June.
- Kalinowski, Thomas & Schulz, Hans-Jörg & Briese, Michael, 2000. "Cooperation in the Minority Game with local information," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 502-508.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- Chengling Gou, 2006. "The Simulation of Financial Markets by Agent-Based Mix-Game Models," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(3), pages 6.
- Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-11, May.
- Chen, Fang & Gou, Chengling & Guo, Xiaoqian & Gao, Jieping, 2008. "Prediction of stock markets by the evolutionary mix-game model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3594-3604.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Rama Cont, 1998. "A Langevin approach to stock market fluctuations and crashes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500027, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- repec:fth:calaec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
- N. F. Johnson & D. Lamper & P. Jefferies & M. L. Hart & S. Howison, 2001. "Application of multi-agent games to the prediction of financial time-series," Papers cond-mat/0105303, arXiv.org.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
- Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.