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World market risk, country-specific risk and expected returns in international stock markets

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  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Cakici, Nusret
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    Abstract

    This paper determines whether the world market risk, country-specific total risk, and country-specific idiosyncratic risk are priced in an international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM). Portfolio-level analyses, country-level cross-sectional regressions, stacked time-series, and pooled panel regressions indicate that the world market risk is not, but country-specific total and idiosyncratic risks are significantly priced in an ICAPM framework with partial integration. This result is robust to different methods for estimating risk measures, different investment horizons, and after controlling for the countries' aggregate dividend yield, earnings-to-price ratios, inflation risk, exchange rate uncertainties, aggregate volatility risk, and past return characteristics. The main findings turn out to be insensitive to the choice of one-factor vs. multifactor models used to estimate systematic and idiosyncratic risk measures.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1152-1165

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1152-1165

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: International equity returns Country-Specific risk Idiosyncratic risk Systematic risk;

    References

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Kris Jacobs & Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2004. "Market Incompleteness and the Equity Premium Puzzle: Evidence from State-Level Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-54, CIRANO.
    2. Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro, 2011. "Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2598-2605, October.
    3. Berger, Tino & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2013. "Measuring time-varying financial market integration: An unobserved components approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 463-473.
    4. Peterson, David R. & Smedema, Adam R., 2011. "The return impact of realized and expected idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2547-2558, October.
    5. Thapa, Chandra & Paudyal, Krishna & Neupane, Suman, 2013. "Access to information and international portfolio allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2255-2267.
    6. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "An international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2473-2493.
    7. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    8. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Timmermann, Allan, 2012. "Do return prediction models add economic value?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2974-2987.

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