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Risk and the January effect

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  • Sun, Qian
  • Tong, Wilson H.S.
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    Abstract

    We use a time-series GARCH framework with the conditional variance/covariance as proxies for systematic risk to reexamine the proposition by Rozeff and Kinney (1976) and Rogalski and Tinic (1986) that the January effect may be a phenomenon of risk compensation in the month. We find no clear evidence that either conditional volatility or unconditional volatility in January is predominantly higher across the sampling years. Hence, against the proposition, the January effect is not due to risk per se. Rather, we find strong evidence that the January effect is due to higher compensation for risk in the month. This may be possible if investors have an increasing RRA utility function. Although many studies find that volatility tends to be higher in January, we find it to be period-specific and mostly in value-weighted return series, but not in equal-weighted return series. This is true both for the unconditional and conditional return volatility.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 965-974

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:965-974

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: January effect Risk premium GARCH Volatility Seasonality;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Yao, Yaqiong, 2012. "Momentum, contrarian, and the January seasonality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2757-2769.
    2. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    3. Ali F. Darrat & Bin Li & Benjamin Liu & Jen Je Su, 2011. "A Fresh Look at Seasonal Anomalies: An International Perspective," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 10(2), pages 93-116, August.
    4. Samaniego Alcántar Ángel & Trejo Pech Carlos Omar & Mongrut Samuel & Fuenzalida Darcy, 2012. "Comportamiento del inversionista a diferentes niveles de inversión en I+D," Contaduría y Administración:Revista Internacional, Accounting and Management: International Journal, vol. 57(3), pages 97-114, julio-sep.
    5. Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2010. "The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2413-2424, October.
    6. Li, Junye, 2011. "Volatility components, leverage effects, and the return-volatility relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1530-1540, June.

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