IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v13y2007i1p3-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Misunderstandings about airline growth

Author

Listed:
  • Swan, William

Abstract

Consolidation is a myth. Data suggest that the airline industry is not consolidating. Competition is either increasing or almost constant, depending on the type of measurement. Hubs are here to stay because half the O–D travel in the world is in markets too small to be served nonstop. Fortunately, small markets are willing to pay. Hubbed carriers’ economic strength is observable in the US ticket price data. Growth has not lead to bigger airplanes—trend in airplane size has been flat to declining since 1985. The evidence is the same in all regions of the world. Big airplanes spend more time on the gate and turn slower, increasing system costs. For small airplanes, value is created by frequency. The share of the largest size shows significant decline. Industry real yields have been declining at 2–3% a year, but cost savings do not need to match this pace. Longer trips and leisure markets have lower yields, so yield can change as the mix changes, even while fares are stable. Data show flat business fares and leisure fares declining by 1% per year. Cost savings continue to match the decline in fares. Jets, high-bypass engines, revenue management, travel agency fees, and competitive wages have each had their turn in reducing costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Swan, William, 2007. "Misunderstandings about airline growth," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:3-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2006.10.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699706000949
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2006.10.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Swan, William M. & Adler, Nicole, 2006. "Aircraft trip cost parameters: A function of stage length and seat capacity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 105-115, March.
    2. Swan, William M, 2002. "Airline route developments: a review of history," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 349-353.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adler, Nicole & Gellman, Aaron, 2012. "Strategies for managing risk in a changing aviation environment," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 24-35.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. João P. Pita & Cynthia Barnhart & António P. Antunes, 2013. "Integrated Flight Scheduling and Fleet Assignment Under Airport Congestion," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 477-492, November.
    2. D’Alfonso, Tiziana & Jiang, Changmin & Bracaglia, Valentina, 2016. "Air transport and high-speed rail competition: Environmental implications and mitigation strategies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 261-276.
    3. Jiang, Changmin & D'Alfonso, Tiziana & Wan, Yulai, 2017. "Air-rail cooperation: Partnership level, market structure and welfare implications," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 461-482.
    4. Koo, Tay T.R. & Hossein Rashidi, Taha & Park, Jin-Woo & Wu, Cheng-Lung & Tseng, Wen-Chun, 2017. "The effect of enhanced international air access on the demand for peripheral tourism destinations: Evidence from air itinerary choice behaviour of Korean visitors to Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 116-129.
    5. Smirti Ryerson, Megan & Hansen, Mark, 2009. "Capturing the Impact of Fuel Price on Jet Aircraft Operating Costs with Engineering and Econometric Models," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt43v655js, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Givoni, Moshe & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Airline's choice of aircraft size - Explanations and implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 500-510, June.
    7. Ko, Young Dae, 2019. "The airfare pricing and seat allocation problem in full-service carriers and subsidiary low-cost carriers," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 92-102.
    8. Verhoef, Erik T., 2010. "Congestion pricing, slot sales and slot trading in aviation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 320-329, March.
    9. Adeline Montlaur & Luis Delgado & César Trapote-Barreira, 2021. "Analytical Models for CO 2 Emissions and Travel Time for Short-to-Medium-Haul Flights Considering Available Seats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-23, September.
    10. Silva, Hugo E. & Verhoef, Erik T. & van den Berg, Vincent A.C., 2014. "Airline route structure competition and network policy," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 320-343.
    11. Basso, Leonardo J. & Zhang, Anming, 2008. "On the relationship between airport pricing models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 725-735, November.
    12. Sieg, Gernot, 2010. "Grandfather rights in the market for airport slots," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-37, January.
    13. Cherbonnier Frédéric & Ivaldi Marc & Muller-Vibes Catherine & Van Der Straeten Karine, 2017. "Competition For Versus In the Market of Long-Distance Passenger Rail Services," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 203-238, June.
    14. Basso, Leonardo J., 2008. "Airport deregulation: Effects on pricing and capacity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 1015-1031, July.
    15. Fageda, Xavier & Flores-Fillol, Ricardo, 2012. "On the optimal distribution of traffic of network airlines," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1164-1179.
    16. Hansen, Mark & Liu, Yi, 2015. "Airline competition and market frequency: A comparison of the s-curve and schedule delay models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 301-317.
    17. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Didier Peeters, 2019. "The magnitude of detours faced by commercial flights: A global assessment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/293811, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Zuidberg, Joost, 2014. "Identifying airline cost economies: An econometric analysis of the factors affecting aircraft operating costs," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 86-95.
    19. Mantin, Benny & Gillen, David, 2011. "The hidden information content of price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 385-393, June.
    20. Keji Wei & Vikrant Vaze, 2020. "Airline Timetable Development and Fleet Assignment Incorporating Passenger Choice," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 139-163, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:3-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.