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Are declining effective tax rates indicative of tax avoidance? Insight from effective tax rate reconciliations

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  • Drake, Katharine D.
  • Hamilton, Russ
  • Lusch, Stephen J.

Abstract

Effective tax rates (ETRs) are often used to compare tax avoidance across firms and time. Using firms' detailed tax footnote data, we find that the effect of valuation allowances (VA) related to prior-period losses biases GAAP ETRs. This downward bias explains almost all of the downward trend in domestic firms' ETRs over the last 20 years. We also find that VAs explain cross-sectional differences in ETRs for both domestic and multinational firms. We show this bias extends to cash ETRs and the Henry and Sansing (2018) tax avoidance measure. We develop a methodology for substantially reducing the bias in both time-series and cross-sectional analyses of cash and GAAP ETRs. Overall, our results suggest firms’ loss histories and GAAP rules influence inferences from tax avoidance proxies.

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  • Drake, Katharine D. & Hamilton, Russ & Lusch, Stephen J., 2020. "Are declining effective tax rates indicative of tax avoidance? Insight from effective tax rate reconciliations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:70:y:2020:i:1:s0165410120300197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2020.101317
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    Cited by:

    1. Lampenius, Niklas & Shevlin, Terry & Stenzel, Arthur, 2021. "Measuring corporate tax rate and tax base avoidance of U.S. Domestic and U.S. multinational firms," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1).
    2. Koch, Reinald & Holtmann, Svea & Giese, Henning, 2022. "Losses never sleep: The effect of tax loss offset on stock market returns during economic crises," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 269, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    3. Thomas R. Kubick & Yijun Li & John R. Robinson, 2020. "Tax-savvy executives," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1301-1343, December.
    4. Flagmeier, Vanessa & Müller, Jens & Sureth, Caren, 2020. "When do firms highlight their effective tax rate?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 259, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    5. Ziyang Yue & Gangqiang Yang & Haisen Wang, 2023. "How do tax reductions motivate technological innovation?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Dane M. Christensen & David G. Kenchington & Rick C. Laux, 2022. "How do most low ETR firms avoid paying taxes?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 570-606, June.
    7. Casi, Elisa & Lisowsky, Petro & Stage, Barbara M. B. & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2024. "Business model digitalization, competition, and tax savings," Discussion Papers 2024/6, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    8. Kay Blaufus & Jakob Reineke & Ilko Trenn, 2023. "Perceived tax audit aggressiveness, tax control frameworks and tax planning: an empirical analysis," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 509-557, April.
    9. Reinald Koch & Svea Holtmann & Henning Giese, 2023. "Losses never sleep – The effect of tax loss offset on stock market returns during economic crises," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(1), pages 59-109, January.
    10. Zihui Xu & Zifan Chen & Lixing Deng & Yan Yu, 2022. "The Impact of Mandatory Deleveraging on Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from a Quasi‐experiment in China," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 32(3), pages 352-366, September.
    11. Novia (Xi) Chen & Peng-Chia Chiu & Terry Shevlin & Jiani Wang, 2023. "Taxes in Non-GAAP Reporting: Evidence of Strategic Behavior in Selecting Tax Rates Applied to Exclusions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 3100-3120, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax avoidance; Effective tax rates; Domestic and multinational firms; Time trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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