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Text classification of ideological direction in judicial opinions

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  • Hausladen, Carina I.
  • Schubert, Marcel H.
  • Ash, Elliott

Abstract

This paper draws on machine learning methods for text classification to predict the ideological direction of decisions from the associated text. Using a 5% hand-coded sample of cases from U.S. Circuit Courts, we explore and evaluate a variety of machine classifiers to predict “conservative decision” or “liberal decision” in held-out data. Our best classifier is highly predictive (F1 = .65) and allows us to extrapolate ideological direction to the full sample. We then use these predictions to replicate and extend Landes and Posner’s (2009) analysis of how the party of the nominating president influences circuit judge's votes.

Suggested Citation

  • Hausladen, Carina I. & Schubert, Marcel H. & Ash, Elliott, 2020. "Text classification of ideological direction in judicial opinions," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:62:y:2020:i:c:s0144818819303667
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2020.105903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Abadie, 2020. "Statistical Nonsignificance in Empirical Economics," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 193-208, June.
    2. Ash, Elliott & Chen, Daniel L. & Lu, Wei, 2018. "Motivated Reasoning in the Field: Partisanship in Precedent, Prose, Vote, and Retirement in U.S. Circuit Courts, 1800-2013," TSE Working Papers 18-976, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Renáta Németh, 2023. "A scoping review on the use of natural language processing in research on political polarization: trends and research prospects," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 289-313, April.
    2. Henrika Langen, 2022. "The Impact of the #MeToo Movement on Language at Court -- A text-based causal inference approach," Papers 2209.00409, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    3. Baumann, Florian & Fagan, Frank, 2023. "When more isn’t always better: The ambiguity of fully transparent judicial action and unrestricted publication rules," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Judge ideology; Circuit courts; Text data; NLP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General

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