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Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks

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  • Ramirez, Philip
  • Reade, J. James
  • Singleton, Carl

Abstract

Bookmakers sell claims to bettors that depend on the outcomes of professional sports events. Like other financial assets, the wisdom of crowds could help sellers to price these claims more efficiently. We use the Wikipedia profile page views of professional tennis players involved in over 10,000 singles matches to construct a buzz factor. This measures the difference between players in their pre-match page views relative to the usual number of views they received over the previous year. The buzz factor significantly predicts mispricing by bookmakers. Using this fact to forecast match outcomes, we demonstrate that a strategy of betting on players who received more pre-match buzz than their opponents can generate substantial profits. These results imply that sportsbooks could price outcomes more efficiently by listening to the buzz.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2023. "Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1413-1423.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:3:p:1413-1423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Lawrence Clegg & John Cartlidge, 2023. "Not feeling the buzz: Correction study of mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," Papers 2306.01740, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    2. Ruud H. Koning & Renske Zijm, 2023. "Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 135-148, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wisdom of crowds; Betting markets; Efficient Market Hypothesis; Forecast efficiency; Professional tennis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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