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A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results

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Author Info

  • McHale, Ian
  • Morton, Alex
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    Abstract

    The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men’s professional tennis, the ATP tour. Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players’ past results and the surface of the contest, we predict match winners for the coming week’s matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week’s results into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the official ranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuring the predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207010001019
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 619-630

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:2:p:619-630

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

    Related research

    Keywords: Bradley-Terry model; Logit; Ranking evaluation; Sport; Betting;

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    Cited by:
    1. Baker, Rose D. & McHale, Ian G., 2014. "A dynamic paired comparisons model: Who is the greatest tennis player?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 677-684.
    2. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Nickolaos, 2012. "Evaluating professional tennis players’ career performance: A Data Envelopment Analysis approach," MPRA Paper 41516, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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