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Forecasting of density functions with an application to cross-sectional and intraday returns

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  • Kokoszka, Piotr
  • Miao, Hong
  • Petersen, Alexander
  • Shang, Han Lin

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the forecasting of probability density functions. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus do not constitute a vector space. The implementation of established functional time series forecasting methods for such nonlinear data is therefore problematic. Two new methods are developed and compared to two existing methods. The comparison is based on the densities derived from cross-sectional and intraday returns. For such data, one of our new approaches is shown to dominate the existing methods, while the other is comparable to one of the existing approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Kokoszka, Piotr & Miao, Hong & Petersen, Alexander & Shang, Han Lin, 2019. "Forecasting of density functions with an application to cross-sectional and intraday returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1304-1317.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1304-1317
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Won-Ki Seo, 2020. "Functional Principal Component Analysis for Cointegrated Functional Time Series," Papers 2011.12781, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    2. Karel Hron & Jitka Machalová & Alessandra Menafoglio, 2023. "Bivariate densities in Bayes spaces: orthogonal decomposition and spline representation," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 1629-1667, October.
    3. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven & Xu, Ruofan, 2022. "Multi-population modelling and forecasting life-table death counts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 239-253.
    4. Germ`a Coenders & N'uria Arimany Serrat, 2023. "Accounting statement analysis at industry level. A gentle introduction to the compositional approach," Papers 2305.16842, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    5. Petersen, Alexander & Zhang, Chao & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2022. "Modeling Probability Density Functions as Data Objects," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 159-178.
    6. Chao Zhang & Piotr Kokoszka & Alexander Petersen, 2022. "Wasserstein autoregressive models for density time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 30-52, January.

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