This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

On the importance of verifying forecasting results

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Yalta, A. Talha
Jenal, Olaf

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We discuss the various sources of error in numerical computations with the use of examples from the literature relevant to time series analysis. We also submit a case where, by manual verification, we were able to discover a plausible forecast to be erroneous due to a number of software flaws in the XLSTAT addin for Microsoft Excel. Furthermore, after discussing the alternative techniques for implementing the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology on a computer, we show that different approaches can cause considerable discrepancies in the results across different programs, and even within a single software system.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4TCPMYX-1/2/30dedd7d55574b0e50f2958e3c3b1281
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 62-73
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:1:p:62-73

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Heidi Boesdal).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kusters, Ulrich & McCullough, B.D. & Bell, Michael, 2006. "Forecasting software: Past, present and future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 599-615. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sawitzki, Gunther, 1994. "Testing numerical reliability of data analysis systems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 269-286, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 1999. "The Numerical Reliability of Econometric Software," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 633-665, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. McCullough, B. D., 2000. "Is it safe to assume that software is accurate?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 349-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2003. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 873-892, June. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 1000 archives contribute their bibliographic data to RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-7.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.