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Validating multiple structural change models-a case study

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  • Christian Kleiber

    (Institut für Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistik, Universität Dortmund, Germany)

  • Achim Zeileis

    (Institut für Statistik und Mathematik, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, Austria)

Abstract

In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models along with several empirical examples. Here, we report on the results of a replication study using the R statistical software package. We are able to verify most of their findings; however, some confidence intervals associated with breakpoints cannot be reproduced. These confidence intervals require computation of the quantiles of a nonstandard distribution, the distribution of the argmax functional of a certain stochastic process. Interestingly, the difficulties appear to be due to numerical problems in GAUSS, the software package used by Bai and Perron. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.856
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 685-690

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:5:p:685-690

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References

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  1. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2001. "Strucchange: An R package for testing for structural change in linear regression models," Technical Reports 2001,26, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  2. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  3. Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Zarkos, Spyros G, 1999. "R: Yet Another Econometric Programming Environment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 319-29, May-June.
  4. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
  5. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2003. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 873-892, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kriström, 2007. "On a clear day you might see an environmental Kuznets curve," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 77-90, May.
  2. Kleiber, Christian & Zeileis, Achim, 2010. "The Grunfeld Data at 50," MPRA Paper 20841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2006. "Modelling autoregressive processes with a shifting mean," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 637, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 22 May 2007.
  4. Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), 2009. "Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009," UPV/EHU Books, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, edition 1, number 01.
  5. A. Talha Yalta & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2009. "Wilkinson Tests and gretl," EHUCHAPS, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  6. Achim Zeileis, . "Econometric Computing with HC and HAC Covariance Matrix Estimators," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(i10).
  7. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
  9. A. Yalta & A. Yalta, 2010. "Should Economists Use Open Source Software for Doing Research?," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 371-394, April.
  10. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 131-141.
  11. Roger Koenker & Achim Zeileis, 2009. "On reproducible econometric research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 833-847.
  12. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Richard G. Anderson & William H. Greene & Bruce D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2005. "The role of data & program code archives in the future of economic research," Working Papers 2005-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
    [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]
    ," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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