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Forecasting mortality in subpopulations using Lee–Carter type models: A comparison

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  • Danesi, Ivan Luciano
  • Haberman, Steven
  • Millossovich, Pietro

Abstract

The relative performance of multipopulation stochastic mortality models is investigated. When targeting mortality rates, we consider five extensions of the well known Lee–Carter single population extrapolative approach. As an alternative, we consider similar structures when mortality improvement rates are targeted. We use a dataset of deaths and exposures of Italian regions for the years 1974–2008 to conduct a comparison of the models, running a battery of tests to assess the relative goodness of fit and forecasting capability of different approaches. Results show that the preferable models are those striking a balance between complexity and flexibility.

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  • Danesi, Ivan Luciano & Haberman, Steven & Millossovich, Pietro, 2015. "Forecasting mortality in subpopulations using Lee–Carter type models: A comparison," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 151-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:62:y:2015:i:c:p:151-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.03.010
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    6. Katrien Antonio & Anastasios Bardoutsos & Wilbert Ouburg, 2015. "Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1505, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
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    8. Andrzej Szymański & Agnieszka Rossa, 2021. "The Complex-Number Mortality Model (CNMM) based on orthonormal expansion of membership function," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(3), pages 31-57, September.
    9. Wang, Ling & Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2021. "Volterra mortality model: Actuarial valuation and risk management with long-range dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Ling Wang & Mei Choi Chiu & Hoi Ying Wong, 2020. "Volterra mortality model: Actuarial valuation and risk management with long-range dependence," Papers 2009.09572, arXiv.org.
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