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Impact of correlation crises in risk theory: Asymptotics of finite-time ruin probabilities for heavy-tailed claim amounts when some independence and stationarity assumptions are relaxed

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  • Biard, Romain
  • Lefèvre, Claude
  • Loisel, Stéphane

Abstract

In the renewal risk model, several strong hypotheses may be found too restrictive to model accurately the complex evolution of the reserves of an insurance company. In the case where claim sizes are heavy-tailed, we relax the independence and stationarity assumptions and extend some asymptotic results on finite-time ruin probabilities, to take into account possible correlation crises like the one recently bred by the sub-prime crisis: claim amounts, in general assumed to be independent, may suddenly become strongly positively dependent. The impact of dependence and non-stationarity is analyzed and several concrete examples are given.

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  • Biard, Romain & Lefèvre, Claude & Loisel, Stéphane, 2008. "Impact of correlation crises in risk theory: Asymptotics of finite-time ruin probabilities for heavy-tailed claim amounts when some independence and stationarity assumptions are relaxed," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 412-421, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:43:y:2008:i:3:p:412-421
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2009. "Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 425-441, September.
    2. Loisel, Stéphane & Milhaud, Xavier, 2011. "From deterministic to stochastic surrender risk models: Impact of correlation crises on economic capital," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 348-357, October.
    3. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2009. "Convergence and asymptotic variance of bootstrapped finite-time ruin probabilities with partly shifted risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 374-381, December.
    4. Romain Biard & Stéphane Loisel & Claudio Macci & Noel Veraverbeke, 2010. "Asymptotic behavior of the finite-time expected time-integrated negative part of some risk processes and optimal reserve allocation," Post-Print hal-00372525, HAL.
    5. Xiaohu Li & Jintang Wu & Jinsen Zhuang, 2015. "Asymptotic Multivariate Finite-time Ruin Probability with Statistically Dependent Heavy-tailed Claims," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 463-477, June.
    6. Chen, Yiqing & Yuen, Kam C., 2012. "Precise large deviations of aggregate claims in a size-dependent renewal risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 457-461.
    7. Florin Avram & Romain Biard & Christophe Dutang & Stéphane Loisel & Landy Rabehasaina, 2014. "A survey of some recent results on Risk Theory," Post-Print hal-01616178, HAL.
    8. He, Yue & Kawai, Reiichiro, 2022. "Moment and polynomial bounds for ruin-related quantities in risk theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(3), pages 1255-1271.
    9. Romain Biard, 2013. "Asymptotic multivariate finite-time ruin probabilities with heavy-tailed claim amounts: Impact of dependence and optimal reserve allocation," Post-Print hal-00538571, HAL.
    10. Laurent Devineau & Stéphane Loisel, 2009. "Risk aggregation in Solvency II: How to converge the approaches of the internal models and those of the standard formula?," Post-Print hal-00403662, HAL.
    11. Geoffrey Nichil & Pierre Vallois, 2019. "Solvency Need Resulting from Reserving Risk in a ORSA Context," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 567-592, June.

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