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Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities

Author

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  • Stéphane Loisel

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Claude Lefèvre

    (ULB - Département de Mathématique [Bruxelles] - ULB - Faculté des Sciences [Bruxelles] - ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the compound Poisson risk model and two generalized models with still Poisson claim arrivals. One extension incorporates inhomogeneity in the premium input and in the claim arrival process, while the other takes into account possible dependence between the successive claim amounts. The problem under study for these risk models is the evaluation of the probabilities of (non-)ruin over any horizon of finite length. The main recent methods, exact or approximate, used to compute the ruin probabilities are reviewed and discussed in a unified way. Special attention is then paid to an analysis of the qualitative impact of dependence between claim amounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Loisel & Claude Lefèvre, 2009. "Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities," Post-Print hal-00201377, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00201377
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-009-9123-9
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00201377
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rulliere, Didier & Loisel, Stephane, 2004. "Another look at the Picard-Lefevre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-203, October.
    2. Dickson, David C. M., 1992. "On the distribution of the surplus prior to ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 191-207, October.
    3. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2008. "On Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Classical Risk Models," Post-Print hal-00168958, HAL.
    4. Dickson, D.C.M., 1999. "On Numerical Evaluation of Finite Time Survival Probabilities," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 575-584, August.
    5. Ignatov, Zvetan G. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Krachunov, Rossen S., 2001. "An improved finite-time ruin probability formula and its Mathematica implementation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 375-386, December.
    6. De Vylder, F. & Goovaerts, M. J., 1988. "Recursive calculation of finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, January.
    7. Dickson, David C. M. & Waters, Howard R., 1991. "Recursive Calculation of Survival Probabilities," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 199-221, November.
    8. Cossette, Helene & Marceau, Etienne, 2000. "The discrete-time risk model with correlated classes of business," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 133-149, May.
    9. Frostig, Esther, 2003. "Ordering ruin probabilities for dependent claim streams," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 93-114, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Goffard, Pierre-Olivier & Lefèvre, Claude, 2018. "Duality in ruin problems for ordered risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-52.
    2. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Zhao, Shouqi, 2016. "On the evaluation of finite-time ruin probabilities in a dependent risk model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 268-286.
    3. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2009. "Convergence and asymptotic variance of bootstrapped finite-time ruin probabilities with partly shifted risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 374-381, December.
    4. Romain Biard & Stéphane Loisel & Claudio Macci & Noel Veraverbeke, 2010. "Asymptotic behavior of the finite-time expected time-integrated negative part of some risk processes and optimal reserve allocation," Post-Print hal-00372525, HAL.
    5. Dutang, C. & Lefèvre, C. & Loisel, S., 2013. "On an asymptotic rule A+B/u for ultimate ruin probabilities under dependence by mixing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 774-785.
    6. Castañer, A. & Claramunt, M.M. & Lefèvre, C., 2013. "Survival probabilities in bivariate risk models, with application to reinsurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 632-642.
    7. Lefèvre, Claude & Picard, Philippe, 2011. "A new look at the homogeneous risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 512-519.
    8. Andrius Grigutis & Jonas Šiaulys, 2020. "Ultimate Time Survival Probability in Three-Risk Discrete Time Risk Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.
    9. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Zvetan G. Ignatov & Vladimir K. Kaishev, 2017. "On the First Crossing of Two Boundaries by an Order Statistics Risk Process," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Florin Avram & Romain Biard & Christophe Dutang & Stéphane Loisel & Landy Rabehasaina, 2014. "A survey of some recent results on Risk Theory," Post-Print hal-01616178, HAL.
    11. Claude Lefèvre & Philippe Picard, 2014. "Ruin Probabilities for Risk Models with Ordered Claim Arrivals," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 885-905, December.
    12. Pierre-Olivier Goffard, 2019. "Fraud risk assessment within blockchain transactions," Working Papers hal-01716687, HAL.
    13. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Zvetan G. Ignatov & Vladimir K. Kaishev, 2019. "Ruin and Deficit Under Claim Arrivals with the Order Statistics Property," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 511-530, June.
    14. Mathieu Bargès & Stéphane Loisel & Xavier Venel, 2011. "On finite-time ruin probabilities with reinsurance cycles influenced by large claims," Post-Print hal-00430178, HAL.
    15. Bihao Su & Chenglong Xu & Jingchao Li, 2022. "A Deep Neural Network Approach to Solving for Seal’s Type Partial Integro-Differential Equation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, May.

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