Skills and educational aspirations as predictors of secondary school dropout in Vietnam: A dynamic approach

Despite the national target of universal lower secondary education, a significant number of students leave secondary school every year in Vietnam. Nothing is known about socioemotional or psychological factors in secondary school dropout. Few studies have investigated dropping out as a dynamic process. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between cognitive and non-cognitive skills, educational aspirations, and school dropout at the lower and upper secondary level, and the transition between these two levels, using Cox models based on the panel data from the Young Lives Vietnam survey. The analysis finds that cognitive skills are more protective against lower secondary school dropout than non-cognitive skills, but less protective against dropout at the transition than non-cognitive skills. The role of skills faded away at the upper secondary level. Instead, adolescents' educational aspirations emerge as the most significant predictor. Other factors such as family background, parents' aspirations for their child's education, and time allocation also play a considerable role. The study suggests developing both cognitive and non-cognitive skills during children’s education to promote secondary graduation.