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Self-rated health status transition and long-term care need, of the oldest Chinese

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  • Peng, Rong
  • Ling, Li
  • He, Qun
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    Abstract

    Objectives The objectives of this paper are: (1) to estimate the transition probabilities among self-rated health status for the oldest Chinese aged 80 and above; (2) to project the future need of long-term care due to changes in demography and health status among the oldest Chinese.Methods Self-rated health data collected in Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey conducted in 1998, 2000 and 2002 were used to estimate the self-rated health status transition probabilities, and to project future long-term care need by calculating the number of unhealthy person-years.Results The majority of the oldest Chinese's health status remains unchanged or worsens within 2 years. The number of unhealthy person-years rises regardless of gender, and the absolute number and increase rate of females are higher than those of males. Under the assumption that average care expenditure is 15 US dollars per hour in 2010, the long-term care expenditure will increase from 8352 million dollars in 2010 to 42,530 million dollars in 2050, a growth of more than 400% over the next 40 years.Conclusions Long-term care need for the oldest Chinese will rise rapidly in the next decades, which should stimulate increased governmental and public awareness of their need.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Health Policy.

    Volume (Year): 97 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2-3 (October)
    Pages: 259-266

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:97:y:2010:i:2-3:p:259-266

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/healthpol

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    Keywords: Self-rated health Long-term care Oldest Chinese;

    References

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    1. Gu, Danan & Dupre, Matthew E. & Warner, David F. & Zeng, Yi, 2009. "Changing health status and health expectancies among older adults in China: Gender differences from 1992 to 2002," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2170-2179, June.
    2. Segovia, Jorge & Bartlett, Roy F. & Edwards, Alison C., 1989. "An empirical analysis of the dimensions of health status measures," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 761-768, January.
    3. Jylhä, Marja, 2009. "What is self-rated health and why does it predict mortality? Towards a unified conceptual model," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 307-316, August.
    4. Jane Zhang, 2006. "Long-term Care for the aged: critical issues and challenges to China's sustainable development," World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 126-143.
    5. Schulz, Erika & Leidl, Reiner & Konig, Hans-Helmut, 2004. "The impact of ageing on hospital care and long-term care--the example of Germany," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-74, January.
    6. Karlsson, Martin & Mayhew, Les & Plumb, Robert & Rickayzen, Ben, 2006. "Future costs for long-term care: Cost projections for long-term care for older people in the United Kingdom," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 187-213, January.
    7. Hoeymans, N. & Feskens, E. J. M. & Kromhout, D. & Van Den Bos, G. A. M., 1997. "Ageing and the relationship between functional status and self-rated health in elderly men," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1527-1536, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Zhang, Xuanchuan & Chen, Li-Wu & Mueller, Keith & Yu, Qiao & Liu, Jiapeng & Lin, Ge, 2011. "Tracking the effectiveness of health care reform in China: A case study of community health centers in a district of Beijing," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 181-188.

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