IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/hepoli/v120y2016i11p1329-1336.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population ageing and healthcare demand: The case of Slovenia

Author

Listed:
  • Vrhovec, Jure
  • Tajnikar, Maks

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explore the consequences of demographic ageing on healthcare demand in Slovenia for primary care, secondary care, hospital day-care treatments, and hospitalisations. In the paper, we develop a model for making projections of the total number of treatments using the age-group projection method with the scenario approach. The model allows the number of treatments to be observed with respect to medical services, age groups and main disease groups. The results are presented for the cross-section years 2015, 2025 and 2035. The smallest increase in the number of treatments occurs in primary care, a larger one for secondary care, and the largest for hospital day-care services and hospitalisations (up to 29.9%). The structure of demand will also change. Demand for healthcare services for children and infants will decrease while demand for diseases associated with older age groups will increase, particularly for diseases of the circulatory system, eye and adnexa, and diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs. The results presented in this paper can help improve understanding of similar processes in other countries for total healthcare demand and for changes in the structure of demand. The results show that the healthcare system in Slovenia will face a major additional burden in the next 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Vrhovec, Jure & Tajnikar, Maks, 2016. "Population ageing and healthcare demand: The case of Slovenia," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(11), pages 1329-1336.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:120:y:2016:i:11:p:1329-1336
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2016.09.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851016302378
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.healthpol.2016.09.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas, Stephen & Layte, Richard, 2009. "General Practitioner Care," Book Chapters, in: Layte, Richard (ed.),Projecting the Impact of Demographic Change on the Demand for and Delivery of Healthcare in Ireland, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Layte, Richard & Morgenroth, Edgar & Normand, Charles, 2009. "The Complex Task of Projecting the Demand for and Delivery of Health Care," Book Chapters, in: Layte, Richard (ed.),Projecting the Impact of Demographic Change on the Demand for and Delivery of Healthcare in Ireland, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Layte, Richard, 2009. "Conclusions and Implications," Book Chapters, in: Layte, Richard (ed.),Projecting the Impact of Demographic Change on the Demand for and Delivery of Healthcare in Ireland, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Layte, Richard, 2009. "Coping with Population Change in Ireland: The Implications for Healthcare," Papers RB2009/4/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501, April.
    6. Layte, Richard, 2009. "Outpatient Services," Book Chapters, in: Layte, Richard (ed.),Projecting the Impact of Demographic Change on the Demand for and Delivery of Healthcare in Ireland, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Chuanyao & Wang, Junren, 2022. "A hierarchical two-step floating catchment area analysis for high-tier hospital accessibility in an urban agglomeration region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Elena Matei & Despina Saghin & Liliana Dumitrache & Mariana Nae, 2018. "Multidimensional Approach on Sustainability of Ageing in Romanian Residential Care Centres for Elders," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Gianina Chirugu, 2023. "Social services for elderly people from Romania," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 39(1), pages 529-537, January.
    4. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mauro Laudicella & Paolo Li Donni & Kim Rose Olsen & Dorte Gyrd‐Hansen, 2022. "Age, morbidity, or something else? A residual approach using microdata to measure the impact of technological progress on health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1184-1201, June.
    2. S. P. Thi颡ut & T. Barnay & B. Ventelou, 2013. "Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1663-1672, May.
    3. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    4. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    5. Kim Peijnenburg & Theo Nijman & Bas J.M. Werker, 2017. "Health Cost Risk: A Potential Solution to the Annuity Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1598-1625, August.
    6. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.
    7. Edouard A. Ribes, 2022. "Financial planning and optimal retirement timing for physically intensive occupations," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-28, August.
    8. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2016. "Medical care within an OLG economy with realistic demography," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    9. repec:ces:ifodic:v:11:y:2013:i:1:p:19078503 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Louise Sheiner, 2009. "Intergenerational aspects of health care," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Wang, David Han-Min & Wu, Kuo-Lun, 2015. "Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 783-787.
    12. Lindgren, Björn, 2016. "The Rise in Life Expectancy, Health Trends among the Elderly, and the Demand for Health and Social Care," Working Papers 142, National Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Karlsson, Martin & Klohn, Florian, 2011. "Some notes on how to catch a red herring Ageing, time-to-death & care costs for older people in Sweden," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77470, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    14. Peijnenburg, J.M.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2010. "Health Cost Risk and Optimal Retirement Provision : A Simple Rule for Annuity Demand," Discussion Paper 2010-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Karlsson, Martin & Klohn, Florian, 2011. "Some notes on how to catch a red herring - Ageing, time-to-death and care costs for older people in Sweden," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2011:6, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
    16. Bidwell, Posy & Humphries, Niamh & Dicker, Patrick & Thomas, Steve & Normand, Charles & Brugha, Ruairí, 2013. "The national and international implications of a decade of doctor migration in the Irish context," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 29-38.
    17. Wildman, John & McMeekin, Peter, 2014. "Health care and social care: complements, substitutes and attributes," MPRA Paper 54425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Edouard Ribes, 2022. "Transforming personal finance thanks to artificial intelligence: myth or reality?," Working Papers hal-03862261, HAL.
    19. Blanco-Moreno, Ángela & Urbanos-Garrido, Rosa M. & Thuissard-Vasallo, Israel John, 2013. "Public healthcare expenditure in Spain: Measuring the impact of driving factors," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 34-42.
    20. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2015. "Health care expenditures and longevity: is there a Eubie Blake effect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(1), pages 95-112, January.
    21. Stefan Felder, 2013. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Healthcare Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(01), pages 03-06, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:120:y:2016:i:11:p:1329-1336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/healthpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.