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Bottom-up sentiment and return predictability of the market portfolio

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  • Guo, Jiaqi
  • Li, Youwei
  • Zheng, Min

Abstract

This paper provides strong evidence that market sentiment measured bottom-up from individual-stock sentiment is negatively related to future long-term market returns and is positively correlated with contemporaneous returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Jiaqi & Li, Youwei & Zheng, Min, 2019. "Bottom-up sentiment and return predictability of the market portfolio," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 57-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:29:y:2019:i:c:p:57-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    3. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    6. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    7. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    8. Aboody, David & Even-Tov, Omri & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2018. "Overnight Returns and Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 485-505, April.
    9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    10. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yun‐Huan Lee & Tzu‐Hsiang Liao & Hsiu‐Chuan Lee, 2022. "Overnight returns of industry exchange‐traded funds, investor sentiment, and futures market returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1114-1134, June.
    2. Chen, Rongda & Huang, Jiahao & Jin, Chenglu & Yang, Yili & Chen, Bing, 2023. "Multidimensional attention to Fintech, trading behavior and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 373-382.
    3. Chen, Rongda & Wang, Shengnan & Ye, Mengya & Jin, Chenglu & Ren, He & Chen, Shu, 2022. "Cross-Market Investor Sentiment of Energy Futures and Return Comovements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Fu, Junhui & Wu, Xiang & Liu, Yufang & Chen, Rongda, 2021. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and stock price crash risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    5. Zhang, Xiaotao & Li, Guoran & Li, Yishuo & Zou, Gaofeng & Wu, Ji George, 2023. "Which is more important in stock market forecasting: Attention or sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bottom-up sentiment; Market return predictability;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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