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Inflation targeting in developing countries revisited

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  • Thornton, John

Abstract

In a recent paper, Gonçalvez and Salles (2008) (G–S) report that developing countries adopting the inflation targeting (IT) regime experienced greater drops in inflation and GDP growth volatility than non-inflation targeting developing countries. In this paper, I find that the G–S results do not hold up when their analytical framework is employed in the context of a more rational and larger sample of developing countries that controls for the comparability of monetary regimes as suggested by Ball (2010). In particular, adoption of an IT regime did not help reduce inflation and growth volatility in developing countries compared to the average experience with other monetary regimes and was no more advantageous in these regards than the adoption of a hard or crawling peg exchange rate regime. As such, the less technically demanding monetary regime of currency pegging remains an attractive regime option for policymakers in developing countries.

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  • Thornton, John, 2016. "Inflation targeting in developing countries revisited," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 145-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:16:y:2016:i:c:p:145-153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2015.10.024
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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    2. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    3. Marco Vega & Adrian Armas & Paul Castillo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Quantitative Tightening: Effects of Reserve Requirements in Peru," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 133-175, June.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343, Elsevier.
    5. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026251799x, December.
    6. Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    7. Marco Vega & Adrian Armas & Paul Castillo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Quantitative Tightening: Effects of Reserve Requirements in Peru," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 133-175, June.
    8. Gill Hammond, 2012. "State of the art of inflation targeting," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 4, number 29, April.
    9. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2017. "Inflation targeting and the cyclicality of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 296-302.
    2. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and income velocity in developing economies: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-61.
    3. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    4. Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2021. "Transitions between monetary policy frameworks and their effects on economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 311-329.
    5. Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Michael Bleaney & Zakari Mumuni, 2020. "Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1529-1550, November.
    6. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Wellington Charles Lacerda Nobrega, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Risk in Latin America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(11), pages 2389-2408, September.
    7. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2020. "How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1187-1207.
    9. Fouda Owoundi, Jean-Pierre & Mbassi, Christophe Martial & Owoundi, Ferdinand, 2021. "Does inflation targeting weaken financial stability? Assessing the role of institutional quality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 374-398.
    10. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2539-2585, November.
    11. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    12. Mevlut Tatliyer, 2017. "Inflation targeting and the need for a new central banking framework," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 512-539, October.
    13. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2019. "The impact of financial development on the effectiveness of inflation targeting in developing economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 25-35.
    14. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja) & Wong, Chun Yee, 2020. "The Impact of Inflation Targeting on Inflation and Growth: How Robust Is the Evidence?," IZA Discussion Papers 13284, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2019. "Credit expansion in a monetary policy game: Implications of the valuation haircut framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 125-129.
    16. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2019. "Adopting inflation targeting in emerging markets: exploring the factors behind the decision," MPRA Paper 115797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jun 2020.
    17. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange market pressure in developing economies: Some international evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 263-272.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Monetary regimes; Developing economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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