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The evolution of ottoman–European market linkages, 1469–1914: Evidence from dynamic factor models

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  • Li, Zhuo
  • Panza, Laura
  • Song, Yong

Abstract

This paper exploits data on a set of traded goods to undertake the first comprehensive empirical analysis of market integration between the Ottoman Empire and Europe from 1469 to 1914. Computing dynamic factor models via Bayesian inference, we overcome such data constraints as missing observations and a small sample size. The results of this analysis suggest that there were persistent market linkages until the first half of the 19th century, followed by a decline in price convergence. We also find that the intensity of Ottoman–European conflict had a negative effect on integration, especially during the 1844–1914 period.

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  • Li, Zhuo & Panza, Laura & Song, Yong, 2019. "The evolution of ottoman–European market linkages, 1469–1914: Evidence from dynamic factor models," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 112-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:71:y:2019:i:c:p:112-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2018.10.002
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    1. Panza, Laura, 2020. "From a common empire to colonial rule: commodity market disintegration in the Near East," CEPR Discussion Papers 15434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East

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