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Decomposition and forecasting analysis of China's energy efficiency: An application of three-dimensional decomposition and small-sample hybrid models

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  • Meng, Ming
  • Shang, Wei
  • Zhao, Xiaoli
  • Niu, Dongxiao
  • Li, Wei

Abstract

The coordinated actions of the central and the provincial governments are important in improving China's energy efficiency. This paper uses a three-dimensional decomposition model to measure the contribution of each province in improving the country's energy efficiency and a small-sample hybrid model to forecast this contribution. Empirical analysis draws the following conclusions which are useful for the central government to adjust its provincial energy-related policies. (a) There are two important areas for the Chinese government to improve its energy efficiency: adjusting the provincial economic structure and controlling the number of the small-scale private industrial enterprises; (b) Except for a few outliers, the energy efficiency growth rates of the northern provinces are higher than those of the southern provinces; provinces with high growth rates tend to converge geographically; (c) With regard to the energy sustainable development level, Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangxi, and Shaanxi are the best performers and Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Shanghai, and Guizhou are the worst performers; (d) By 2020, China's energy efficiency may reach 24.75 thousand yuan per ton of standard coal; as well as (e) Three development scenarios are designed to forecast China's energy consumption in 2012–2020.

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  • Meng, Ming & Shang, Wei & Zhao, Xiaoli & Niu, Dongxiao & Li, Wei, 2015. "Decomposition and forecasting analysis of China's energy efficiency: An application of three-dimensional decomposition and small-sample hybrid models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 283-293.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:89:y:2015:i:c:p:283-293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.05.132
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    8. Radpour, Saeidreza & Hossain Mondal, Md Alam & Kumar, Amit, 2017. "Market penetration modeling of high energy efficiency appliances in the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 951-961.

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