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The future of energy in Uzbekistan

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  • Gómez, Antonio
  • Dopazo, César
  • Fueyo, Norberto

Abstract

The Central Asia republic of Uzbekistan is well endowed with energy resources, yet its energy system presents some critical problems in terms of sustainability, security and affordability. Uzbekistan is the most populated country in the region, and therefore population growth, economic development and urbanization are likely to further strain the system in the future. We study some possible pathways for the Uzbek energy sector until 2040. We do so by creating a detailed model of the Uzbek energy system, and analyzing quantitatively the differential effect of determined policies (as compared to Business As Usual ones) in the transformation of the energy demand and supply sides. We find that, even in a scenario of moderate economic growth, energy sector modernization can reduce the cumulative primary energy consumption by 447 Mtoe (10.2 times the primary energy consumption of Uzbekistan in 2010) and CO2 emissions by 1155 Mt (10.5 times the current annual CO2 emissions). To achieve these savings, we estimate the required investment in the power and heat sectors at 2010$33.6 billion, or 1.5% of the country cumulative GDP (gross domestic product) between 2010 and 2040; despite these additional investment needs, we conclude that the affordability of energy to households is preserved or improved.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez, Antonio & Dopazo, César & Fueyo, Norberto, 2015. "The future of energy in Uzbekistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 329-338.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:85:y:2015:i:c:p:329-338
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.03.073
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    2. Ahunov, Muzaffarjon & Kakhkharov, Jakhongir & Mozumder, Pallab, 2022. "Income and household energy consumption in a transition economy: The case of Uzbekistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    3. Kong, Zhaoyang & Lu, Xi & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Liu, Guixian & Elbot, Noah & Zhang, Zhonghua & Chen, Shi, 2019. "Assessment of import risks for natural gas and its implication for optimal importing strategies: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 11-18.
    4. Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Sung, Jinsok & Talipova, Amina & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2022. "Analyzing energy trade policy in Central Asia using the intercountry trade force approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 441-454.
    5. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Aktamov Asomiddin, 2022. "Energy-Use Inefficiency and Policy Governance in Central Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Hartwell, Christopher A. & Popova, Olga, 2023. "Energy efficiency, market competition, and quality certification: Lessons from Central Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Yuliia Matiiuk & Mykolas Simas Poškus & Genovaitė Liobikienė, 2020. "The Implementation of Climate Change Policy in Post-Soviet Countries Achieving Long-Term Targets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, June.
    8. Li, Ke & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "Impacts of urbanization and industrialization on energy consumption/CO2 emissions: Does the level of development matter?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1107-1122.
    9. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2022. "Energy use inefficiency and policy governance: the case of Central Asian countries," MPRA Paper 111932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gómez, Antonio & Dopazo, César & Fueyo, Norberto, 2016. "The “cost of not doing” energy planning: The Spanish energy bubble," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 434-446.

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