IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v59y2013icp116-125.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Methods of estimating shale gas resources – Comparison, evaluation and implications

Author

Listed:
  • McGlade, Christophe
  • Speirs, Jamie
  • Sorrell, Steve

Abstract

Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources remain highly uncertain, even in regions with a relatively long history of shale gas production. This paper examines the reasons for these uncertainties, focussing in particular on the methods used to derive resource estimates. Such estimates can be based upon the extrapolation of previous production experience in developed areas, or from the geological appraisal of undeveloped areas. The paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods, the level of uncertainty in the results and the implications of this for current policy debates. We conclude that there are substantial difficulties in assessing the recoverable volumes of shale gas and that current resource estimates should be treated with considerable caution. Most existing studies lack transparency or a rigorous approach to assessing uncertainty and provide estimates that are highly sensitive to key variables that are poorly defined - such as the assumed ratio of gas-in-place to recovered gas (the ‘recovery factor’) and the assumed ultimate recovery from individual wells. To illustrate the uncertainties both within and between different methodological approaches, we provide case studies of resource estimates for the Marcellus shale in the US and three basins in India.

Suggested Citation

  • McGlade, Christophe & Speirs, Jamie & Sorrell, Steve, 2013. "Methods of estimating shale gas resources – Comparison, evaluation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:59:y:2013:i:c:p:116-125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.05.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213004416
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2013.05.031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McGlade, Christophe & Speirs, Jamie & Sorrell, Steve, 2013. "Unconventional gas – A review of regional and global resource estimates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 571-584.
    2. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2011. "Long term forecasting of natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5550-5560, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philipp M. Richter, 2015. "From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    2. Shao, Jiaxin & You, Lijun & Jia, Na & Kang, Yili & Chen, Mingjun & Lei, Xiaowen, 2023. "Salt crystal: Natural proppant for enhancing shale reservoir production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    3. Vivek Srikrishnan & Yawen Guan & Richard S. J. Tol & Klaus Keller, 2022. "Probabilistic projections of baseline twenty-first century CO2 emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Chi Yong & Mu Tong & Zhongyi Yang & Jixian Zhou, 2023. "Conventional Natural Gas Project Investment and Decision Making under Multiple Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-30, February.
    5. Speirs, Jamie & McGlade, Christophe & Slade, Raphael, 2015. "Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 654-664.
    6. Chen, Junqing & Jiang, Fujie & Cong, Qi & Pang, Xiongqi & Ma, Kuiyou & Shi, Kanyuan & Pang, Bo & Chen, Dongxia & Pang, Hong & Yang, Xiaobin & Wang, Yuying & Li, Bingyao, 2023. "Adsorption characteristics of shale gas in organic–inorganic slit pores," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. Yang, Xianyu & Chen, Shuya & Shi, Yanping & Feng, Ruimin & Cai, Jihua & Jiang, Guosheng, 2019. "CFD and DEM modelling of particles plugging in shale pores," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1026-1038.
    8. Sheridan Few & Ajay Gambhir & Tamaryn Napp & Adam Hawkes & Stephane Mangeon & Dan Bernie & Jason Lowe, 2017. "The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Hui, Gang & Chen, Zhangxin & Wang, Youjing & Zhang, Dongmei & Gu, Fei, 2023. "An integrated machine learning-based approach to identifying controlling factors of unconventional shale productivity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    10. Yang, Xianyu & Cai, Jihua & Jiang, Guosheng & Zhang, Yungen & Shi, Yanping & Chen, Shuya & Yue, Ye & Wei, Zhaohui & Yin, Dezhan & Li, Hua, 2022. "Modeling of nanoparticle fluid microscopic plugging effect on horizontal and vertical wellbore of shale gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    11. Harleman, Max & Weber, Jeremy G., 2017. "Natural resource ownership, financial gains, and governance: The case of unconventional gas development in the UK and the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 281-296.
    12. Chen, Lei & Huang, Ding-Bin & Wang, Shan-You & Nie, Yi-Nan & He, Ya-Ling & Tao, Wen-Quan, 2019. "A study on dynamic desorption process of methane in slits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1174-1180.
    13. Andres Soage & Ruben Juanes & Ignasi Colominas & Luis Cueto-Felgueroso, 2021. "The Impact of the Geometry of the Effective Propped Volume on the Economic Performance of Shale Gas Well Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, April.
    14. Yang, Run & Liu, Xiangui & Yu, Rongze & Hu, Zhiming & Duan, Xianggang, 2022. "Long short-term memory suggests a model for predicting shale gas production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    15. Westaway, Rob & Younger, Paul L. & Cornelius, Chris, 2015. "Comment on ‘Life cycle environmental impacts of UK shale gas’ by L. Stamford and A. Azapagic. Applied Energy, 134, 506–518, 2014," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 489-495.
    16. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2018. "Simulating the game-theoretic market equilibrium and contract-driven investment in global gas trade using an agent-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 820-834.
    17. Tunstall, Thomas, 2015. "Iterative Bass Model forecasts for unconventional oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 580-588.
    18. Montgomery, J.B. & O’Sullivan, F.M., 2017. "Spatial variability of tight oil well productivity and the impact of technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 344-355.
    19. Youssef Elkady & Ye Lyu & Kristian Jessen & Anthony R. Kovscek, 2020. "Three-Dimensional Imaging and Quantification of Gas Storativity in Nanoporous Media via X-rays Computed Tomography," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.
    21. Yang, Xianyu & Cai, Jihua & Jiang, Guosheng & Xie, Jingyu & Shi, Yanping & Chen, Shuya & Yue, Ye & Yu, Lang & He, Yichao & Xie, Kunzhi, 2020. "Nanoparticle plugging prediction of shale pores: A numerical and experimental study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    22. Kuchler, Magdalena & Höök, Mikael, 2020. "Fractured visions: Anticipating (un)conventional natural gas in Poland," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jianliang & Mohr, Steve & Feng, Lianyong & Liu, Huihui & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 389-401.
    2. Yin, Hong & Zhou, Junping & Xian, Xuefu & Jiang, Yongdong & Lu, Zhaohui & Tan, Jingqiang & Liu, Guojun, 2017. "Experimental study of the effects of sub- and super-critical CO2 saturation on the mechanical characteristics of organic-rich shales," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 84-95.
    3. Damien Giurco & Steve Mohr & Gavin Mudd & Leah Mason & Timothy Prior, 2012. "Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections," Resources, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Shangfeng Han & Baosheng Zhang & Xiaoyang Sun & Song Han & Mikael Höök, 2017. "China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
    6. Griffiths, Steven, 2017. "A review and assessment of energy policy in the Middle East and North Africa region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 249-269.
    7. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    8. Xiaoqian Guo & Qiang Yan & Anjian Wang, 2017. "Assessment of Methods for Forecasting Shale Gas Supply in China Based on Economic Considerations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, October.
    9. Tunstall, Thomas, 2015. "Iterative Bass Model forecasts for unconventional oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 580-588.
    10. Ikonnikova, Svetlana & Gülen, Gürcan & Browning, John & Tinker, Scott W., 2015. "Profitability of shale gas drilling: A case study of the Fayetteville shale play," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 382-393.
    11. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    12. Watson, Jim & Gross, Rob & Ketsopoulou, Ioanna & Winskel, Mark, 2015. "The impact of uncertainties on the UK's medium-term climate change targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 685-695.
    13. Gülen, Gürcan & Browning, John & Ikonnikova, Svetlana & Tinker, Scott W., 2013. "Well economics across ten tiers in low and high Btu (British thermal unit) areas, Barnett Shale, Texas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 302-315.
    14. Siavash Asiaban & Nezmin Kayedpour & Arash E. Samani & Dimitar Bozalakov & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Guillaume Crevecoeur & Lieven Vandevelde, 2021. "Wind and Solar Intermittency and the Associated Integration Challenges: A Comprehensive Review Including the Status in the Belgian Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-41, May.
    15. Zou, Youqin & Yang, Changbing & Wu, Daishe & Yan, Chun & Zeng, Masun & Lan, Yingying & Dai, Zhenxue, 2016. "Probabilistic assessment of shale gas production and water demand at Xiuwu Basin in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 185-195.
    16. Guo, Hongguang & Zhang, Yujie & Zhang, Yiwen & Li, Xingfeng & Li, Zhigang & Liang, Weiguo & Huang, Zaixing & Urynowicz, Michael & Ali, Muhammad Ishtiaq, 2021. "Feasibility study of enhanced biogenic coalbed methane production by super-critical CO2 extraction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    17. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    18. Kai Whiting & Luis Gabriel Carmona & Angeles Carrasco & Tânia Sousa, 2017. "Exergy Replacement Cost of Fossil Fuels: Closing the Carbon Cycle," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.
    19. Speirs, Jamie & McGlade, Christophe & Slade, Raphael, 2015. "Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 654-664.
    20. Lu, Yiyu & Chen, Xiayu & Tang, Jiren & Li, Honglian & Zhou, Lei & Han, Shuaibin & Ge, Zhaolong & Xia, Binwei & Shen, Huajian & Zhang, Jing, 2019. "Relationship between pore structure and mechanical properties of shale on supercritical carbon dioxide saturation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 270-285.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:59:y:2013:i:c:p:116-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.