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Long term forecasting of natural gas production

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  • Mohr, S.H.
  • Evans, G.M.

Abstract

Natural gas is an important energy source for power generation, a chemical feedstock and residential usage. It is important to analyse the future production of conventional and unconventional natural gas. Analysis of the literature determined conventional URR estimates of 10,700-18,300Â EJ, and the unconventional gas URR estimates were determined to be 4250-11,000Â EJ. Six scenarios were assumed, with three static where demand and supply do not interact and three dynamic where it does. The projections indicate that world natural gas production will peak between 2025 and 2066 at 140-217Â EJ/y (133-206Â tcf/y). Natural gas resources are more abundant than some of the literature indicates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2011. "Long term forecasting of natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5550-5560, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5550-5560
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    1. Siavash Asiaban & Nezmin Kayedpour & Arash E. Samani & Dimitar Bozalakov & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Guillaume Crevecoeur & Lieven Vandevelde, 2021. "Wind and Solar Intermittency and the Associated Integration Challenges: A Comprehensive Review Including the Status in the Belgian Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-41, May.
    2. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    3. Wang, Jianliang & Mohr, Steve & Feng, Lianyong & Liu, Huihui & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 389-401.
    4. Xie, Minghua & Wei, Xiaonan & Chen, Chuanglian & Sun, Chuanwang, 2022. "China's natural gas production peak and energy return on investment (EROI): From the perspective of energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Sgouris Sgouridis & Denes Csala, 2014. "A Framework for Defining Sustainable Energy Transitions: Principles, Dynamics, and Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Northey, S. & Mohr, S. & Mudd, G.M. & Weng, Z. & Giurco, D., 2014. "Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 190-201.
    7. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
    8. Wang, Ting & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "Impacts of unconventional gas development on China׳s natural gas production and import," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 546-554.
    9. Qiao, Weibiao & Liu, Wei & Liu, Enbin, 2021. "A combination model based on wavelet transform for predicting the difference between monthly natural gas production and consumption of U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    10. Kai Whiting & Luis Gabriel Carmona & Angeles Carrasco & Tânia Sousa, 2017. "Exergy Replacement Cost of Fossil Fuels: Closing the Carbon Cycle," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.
    11. Steve Mohr & Damien Giurco & Monique Retamal & Leah Mason & Gavin Mudd, 2018. "Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, February.
    12. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    13. McGlade, Christophe & Speirs, Jamie & Sorrell, Steve, 2013. "Unconventional gas – A review of regional and global resource estimates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 571-584.
    14. McGlade, Christophe & Speirs, Jamie & Sorrell, Steve, 2013. "Methods of estimating shale gas resources – Comparison, evaluation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-125.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    16. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    17. Darda, Md Abud & Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia, 2015. "Nonlinear production path and an alternative reserves estimate for South Asian natural gas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 654-664.
    18. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.
    19. Voudouris, Vlasios & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi & Sedgwick, John & Rigby, Robert & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Jefferson, Michael, 2014. "Exploring the production of natural gas through the lenses of the ACEGES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 124-133.
    20. Sen, Doruk & Hamurcuoglu, K. Irem & Ersoy, Melisa Z. & Tunç, K.M. Murat & Günay, M. Erdem, 2023. "Forecasting long-term world annual natural gas production by machine learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    21. Damien Giurco & Steve Mohr & Gavin Mudd & Leah Mason & Timothy Prior, 2012. "Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections," Resources, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-11, December.
    22. Shangfeng Han & Baosheng Zhang & Xiaoyang Sun & Song Han & Mikael Höök, 2017. "China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-25, April.
    23. Xiaoqian Guo & Qiang Yan & Anjian Wang, 2017. "Assessment of Methods for Forecasting Shale Gas Supply in China Based on Economic Considerations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, October.

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