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One-day-ahead electricity demand forecasting in holidays using discrete-interval moving seasonalities

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  • Trull, Oscar
  • García-Díaz, J. Carlos
  • Troncoso, Alicia

Abstract

Transmission System Operators provide forecasts of electricity demand to the electricity system. The producers and sellers use this information to establish the next day production units planning and prices. The results obtained are very accurate. However, they have a great deal with special events forecasting. Special events produce anomalous load conditions, and the models used to provide predictions must react properly against these situations. In this article, a new forecasting method based on multiple seasonal Holt-Winters modelling including discrete-interval moving seasonalities is applied to the Spanish hourly electricity demand to predict holidays with a 24-h prediction horizon. It allows the model to integrate the anomalous load within the model. The main results show how the new proposal outperforms regular methods and reduces the forecasting error from 9.5% to under 5% during holidays.

Suggested Citation

  • Trull, Oscar & García-Díaz, J. Carlos & Troncoso, Alicia, 2021. "One-day-ahead electricity demand forecasting in holidays using discrete-interval moving seasonalities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:231:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221012147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120966
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    Cited by:

    1. Trull, Oscar & García-Díaz, J. Carlos & Peiró-Signes, A., 2022. "Multiple seasonal STL decomposition with discrete-interval moving seasonalities," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 433(C).
    2. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    3. Oscar Trull & J. Carlos Garc'ia-D'iaz & Angel Peir'o-Signes, 2024. "mshw, a forecasting library to predict short-term electricity demand based on multiple seasonal Holt-Winters," Papers 2402.10982, arXiv.org.

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