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Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?

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  • Voisin, N.
  • Kintner-Meyer, M.
  • Skaggs, R.
  • Nguyen, T.
  • Wu, D.
  • Dirks, J.
  • Xie, Y.
  • Hejazi, M.

Abstract

Large-scale assessments of the vulnerability of electric infrastructure are usually performed for a baseline water year or a specific period of drought. This approach does not provide insights into the full distribution of stress on the grid across the diversity of historic climate events. In this paper we estimate the Western US grid stress distribution as a function of inter-annual variability in regional water availability. We softly couple an integrated water model (climate, hydrology, routing, water resources management, and socioeconomic water demand models) into an electricity production cost model and simulate electricity generation and delivery of power for combinations of 30 years of historical water availability data. Results indicate a clear correlation between grid vulnerability (unmet electricity services) for the month of August, and annual water availability. There is a 21% chance of insufficient generation (system threshold) and a 3% chance that at least 6% of the electricity demand cannot be met in August. Better knowledge of the probability distribution of the risk exposure of the electricity system due to water constraints could improve power system planning. Deeper understanding of the impacts of regional variability in water availability on the reliability of the grid could help develop tradeoff strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Voisin, N. & Kintner-Meyer, M. & Skaggs, R. & Nguyen, T. & Wu, D. & Dirks, J. & Xie, Y. & Hejazi, M., 2016. "Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:115:y:2016:i:p1:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.059
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    2. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
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    5. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    6. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2017. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Earth Arxiv 7z96d, Center for Open Science.
    7. Zohrabian, Angineh & Sanders, Kelly T., 2018. "Assessing the impact of drought on the emissions- and water-intensity of California's transitioning power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 461-470.
    8. Judy P. Che-Castaldo & Rémi Cousin & Stefani Daryanto & Grace Deng & Mei-Ling E. Feng & Rajesh K. Gupta & Dezhi Hong & Ryan M. McGranaghan & Olukunle O. Owolabi & Tianyi Qu & Wei Ren & Toryn L. J. Sch, 2021. "Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 594-615, December.
    9. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    10. O'Connell, & Voisin, Nathalie & Macknick, & Fu,, 2019. "Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 745-754.
    11. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    12. Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Turner, Sean W.D. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Ríos-Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Hejazi, Mohamad I. & Kober, Tom & Álvarez-Espinosa, Andrés C. & Romero-Otalora, Germán D. & van der Zwaan, , 2019. "Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-188.
    13. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    14. Su, Yufei & Kern, Jordan D. & Reed, Patrick M. & Characklis, Gregory W., 2020. "Compound hydrometeorological extremes across multiple timescales drive volatility in California electricity market prices and emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    15. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.

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