IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v114y2016icp498-512.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function

Author

Listed:
  • He, Yaoyao
  • Xu, Qifa
  • Wan, Jinhong
  • Yang, Shanlin

Abstract

Highly accurate short-term power load forecasting (STLF) is fundamental to the success of reducing the risk when making power system planning and operational decisions. For quantifying uncertainty associated with power load and obtaining more information of future load, a probability density forecasting method based on quantile regression neural network using triangle kernel function (QRNNT) is proposed. The nonlinear structure of neural network is applied to transform the quantile regression model for constructing probabilistic forecasting method. Moreover, the triangle kernel function and direct plug-in bandwidth selection method are employed to perform kernel density estimation. To verify the efficiency, the proposed method is used for Canada's and China's load forecasting. The complete probability density curves are obtained to indicate the QRNNT method is capable of forecasting high quality prediction interval (PIs) with higher coverage probability. Numerical results also confirm favorable performance of proposed method in comparison with the several existing forecasting methods.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Yaoyao & Xu, Qifa & Wan, Jinhong & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 498-512.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:114:y:2016:i:c:p:498-512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216311264
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Zhongyi & Bao, Yukun & Chiong, Raymond & Xiong, Tao, 2015. "Mid-term interval load forecasting using multi-output support vector regression with a memetic algorithm for feature selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 419-431.
    2. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, January.
    3. Jurado, Sergio & Nebot, Àngela & Mugica, Fransisco & Avellana, Narcís, 2015. "Hybrid methodologies for electricity load forecasting: Entropy-based feature selection with machine learning and soft computing techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 276-291.
    4. Lin, Whei-Min & Gow, Hong-Jey & Tsai, Ming-Tang, 2010. "An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3226-3234, October.
    5. Takeda, Hisashi & Tamura, Yoshiyasu & Sato, Seisho, 2016. "Using the ensemble Kalman filter for electricity load forecasting and analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    6. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    7. Moazzami, M. & Khodabakhshian, A. & Hooshmand, R., 2013. "A new hybrid day-ahead peak load forecasting method for Iran’s National Grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 489-501.
    8. Ghofrani, M. & Ghayekhloo, M. & Arabali, A. & Ghayekhloo, A., 2015. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting with a new input selection framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 777-786.
    9. Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti & Khosravi, Abbas, 2014. "Uncertainty handling using neural network-based prediction intervals for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 916-925.
    10. Amjady, N. & Keynia, F., 2009. "Short-term load forecasting of power systems by combination of wavelet transform and neuro-evolutionary algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 46-57.
    11. Che, JinXing & Wang, JianZhou, 2014. "Short-term load forecasting using a kernel-based support vector regression combination model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 602-609.
    12. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    13. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    14. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    15. Nowotarski, Jakub & Liu, Bidong & Weron, Rafał & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 40-49.
    16. Carlos Tenreiro, 2011. "Fourier series-based direct plug-in bandwidth selectors for kernel density estimation," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 533-545.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shepero, Mahmoud & van der Meer, Dennis & Munkhammar, Joakim & Widén, Joakim, 2018. "Residential probabilistic load forecasting: A method using Gaussian process designed for electric load data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 159-172.
    2. van der Meer, D.W. & Shepero, M. & Svensson, A. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption, photovoltaic power generation and net demand of an individual building using Gaussian Processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 195-207.
    3. Lei Zhang & Lun Xie & Qinkai Han & Zhiliang Wang & Chen Huang, 2020. "Probability Density Forecasting of Wind Speed Based on Quantile Regression and Kernel Density Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-24, November.
    4. Sadaei, Hossein Javedani & de Lima e Silva, Petrônio Cândido & Guimarães, Frederico Gadelha & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam, 2019. "Short-term load forecasting by using a combined method of convolutional neural networks and fuzzy time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 365-377.
    5. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. He, Yaoyao & Zheng, Yaya, 2018. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on Yeo-Johnson transformation quantile regression and Gaussian kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 143-156.
    7. Mariz B. Arias & Sungwoo Bae, 2020. "Design Models for Power Flow Management of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System with Energy Storage System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Wang, Yunqi & Qiu, Jing & Tao, Yuechuan, 2022. "Robust energy systems scheduling considering uncertainties and demand side emission impacts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    9. Hu, Jianming & Heng, Jiani & Wen, Jiemei & Zhao, Weigang, 2020. "Deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting with de-noising-reconstruction strategy and quantile regression based algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1208-1226.
    10. He, Feifei & Zhou, Jianzhong & Mo, Li & Feng, Kuaile & Liu, Guangbiao & He, Zhongzheng, 2020. "Day-ahead short-term load probability density forecasting method with a decomposition-based quantile regression forest," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    11. Guo, Zhifeng & Zhou, Kaile & Zhang, Xiaoling & Yang, Shanlin, 2018. "A deep learning model for short-term power load and probability density forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1186-1200.
    12. Liu, Yang & Wang, Wei & Ghadimi, Noradin, 2017. "Electricity load forecasting by an improved forecast engine for building level consumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 18-30.
    13. He, Yaoyao & Liu, Rui & Li, Haiyan & Wang, Shuo & Lu, Xiaofen, 2017. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression and Copula theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 254-266.
    14. Nsangou, Jean Calvin & Kenfack, Joseph & Nzotcha, Urbain & Ngohe Ekam, Paul Salomon & Voufo, Joseph & Tamo, Thomas T., 2022. "Explaining household electricity consumption using quantile regression, decision tree and artificial neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    15. He, Yaoyao & Cao, Chaojin & Wang, Shuo & Fu, Hong, 2022. "Nonparametric probabilistic load forecasting based on quantile combination in electrical power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    16. Saeed, Adnan & Li, Chaoshun & Gan, Zhenhao & Xie, Yuying & Liu, Fangjie, 2022. "A simple approach for short-term wind speed interval prediction based on independently recurrent neural networks and error probability distribution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    17. Karimi, M. & Karami, H. & Gholami, M. & Khatibzadehazad, H. & Moslemi, N., 2018. "Priority index considering temperature and date proximity for selection of similar days in knowledge-based short term load forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 928-940.
    18. Yang, Yandong & Li, Shufang & Li, Wenqi & Qu, Meijun, 2018. "Power load probability density forecasting using Gaussian process quantile regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-509.
    19. Fuqiang Li & Shiying Zhang & Wenxuan Li & Wei Zhao & Bingkang Li & Huiru Zhao, 2019. "Forecasting Hourly Power Load Considering Time Division: A Hybrid Model Based on K-means Clustering and Probability Density Forecasting Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Óscar Trull & J. Carlos García-Díaz & Alicia Troncoso, 2019. "Application of Discrete-Interval Moving Seasonalities to Spanish Electricity Demand Forecasting during Easter," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    21. Zhang, Wenjie & Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2018. "Parallel and reliable probabilistic load forecasting via quantile regression forest and quantile determination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 810-819.
    22. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
    23. Lin Lin & Lin Xue & Zhiqiang Hu & Nantian Huang, 2018. "Modular Predictor for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting and Feature Selection for Different Hours," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-30, July.
    24. He, Yaoyao & Qin, Yang & Wang, Shuo & Wang, Xu & Wang, Chao, 2019. "Electricity consumption probability density forecasting method based on LASSO-Quantile Regression Neural Network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 565-575.
    25. Zhang, Shu & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yutian & Wang, Dan & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Yaoyao & Zheng, Yaya, 2018. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on Yeo-Johnson transformation quantile regression and Gaussian kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 143-156.
    2. He, Yaoyao & Liu, Rui & Li, Haiyan & Wang, Shuo & Lu, Xiaofen, 2017. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression and Copula theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 254-266.
    3. Dadkhah, Mojtaba & Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Zare Chavoshi, Ahmad, 2018. "Short-term power output forecasting of hourly operation in power plant based on climate factors and effects of wind direction and wind speed," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 775-788.
    4. He, Feifei & Zhou, Jianzhong & Mo, Li & Feng, Kuaile & Liu, Guangbiao & He, Zhongzheng, 2020. "Day-ahead short-term load probability density forecasting method with a decomposition-based quantile regression forest," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    5. Yang, YouLong & Che, JinXing & Li, YanYing & Zhao, YanJun & Zhu, SuLing, 2016. "An incremental electric load forecasting model based on support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 796-808.
    6. Nsangou, Jean Calvin & Kenfack, Joseph & Nzotcha, Urbain & Ngohe Ekam, Paul Salomon & Voufo, Joseph & Tamo, Thomas T., 2022. "Explaining household electricity consumption using quantile regression, decision tree and artificial neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    7. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    8. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    9. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Yu, Mengxia & Ma, Jing & Jin, Congjun, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1057-1074.
    10. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    11. Guowei Cai & Wenjin Wang & Junhai Lu, 2016. "A Novel Hybrid Short Term Load Forecasting Model Considering the Error of Numerical Weather Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    12. Liu, Yang & Wang, Wei & Ghadimi, Noradin, 2017. "Electricity load forecasting by an improved forecast engine for building level consumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 18-30.
    13. Chengshi Tian & Yan Hao, 2018. "A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, March.
    14. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2018. "Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 149-164.
    15. Nantian Huang & Guobo Lu & Dianguo Xu, 2016. "A Permutation Importance-Based Feature Selection Method for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using Random Forest," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-24, September.
    16. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
    17. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Dezhi & Tan, Zhongfu & Zhou, Jianhua, 2018. "Short term electricity load forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 774-781.
    18. Zhang, Liang & Wen, Jin & Li, Yanfei & Chen, Jianli & Ye, Yunyang & Fu, Yangyang & Livingood, William, 2021. "A review of machine learning in building load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    19. Lin Lin & Lin Xue & Zhiqiang Hu & Nantian Huang, 2018. "Modular Predictor for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting and Feature Selection for Different Hours," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-30, July.
    20. Fan, Guo-Feng & Peng, Li-Ling & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2018. "Short term load forecasting based on phase space reconstruction algorithm and bi-square kernel regression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 13-33.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:114:y:2016:i:c:p:498-512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.