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Improving energy efficiency and smart grid program analysis with agent-based end-use forecasting models

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  • Jackson, Jerry
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    Abstract

    Electric utilities and regulators face difficult challenges evaluating new energy efficiency and smart grid programs prompted, in large part, by recent state and federal mandates and financial incentives. It is increasingly difficult to separate electricity use impacts of individual utility programs from the impacts of increasingly stringent appliance and building efficiency standards, increasing electricity prices, appliance manufacturer efficiency improvements, energy program interactions and other factors. This study reviews traditional approaches used to evaluate electric utility energy efficiency and smart-grid programs and presents an agent-based end-use modeling approach that resolves many of the shortcomings of traditional approaches. Data for a representative sample of utility customers in a Midwestern US utility are used to evaluate energy efficiency and smart grid program targets over a fifteen-year horizon. Model analysis indicates that a combination of the two least stringent efficiency and smart grid program scenarios provides peak hour reductions one-third greater than the most stringent smart grid program suggesting that reductions in peak demand requirements are more feasible when both efficiency and smart grid programs are considered together. Suggestions on transitioning from traditional end-use models to agent-based end-use models are provided.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4YNT92H-1/2/9f45e74a76ae8227437e967b0797535c
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 7 (July)
    Pages: 3771-3780

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:7:p:3771-3780

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Energy efficiency Agent-based model End-use model;

    References

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    1. Paul L. Joskow & Donald B. Marron, 1992. "What Does a Negawatt Really Cost? Evidence from Utility Conservation Programs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 41-74.
    2. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    3. Jackson, Jerry, 2007. "Are US utility standby rates inhibiting diffusion of customer-owned generating systems?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1896-1908, March.
    4. Vine, Edward, 2008. "Strategies and policies for improving energy efficiency programs: Closing the loop between evaluation and implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3872-3881, October.
    5. David S. Loughran and Jonathan Kulick, 2004. "Demand-Side Management and Energy Efficiency in the United States," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-44.
    6. Palmer, Karen & Newell, Richard & Gillingham, Kenneth, 2004. "Retrospective Examination of Demand-side Energy-efficiency Policies," Discussion Papers dp-04-19, Resources For the Future.
    7. Maximilian Auffhammer & Carl Blumstein & Meredith Fowlie, 2008. "Demand-Side Management and Energy Efficiency Revisited," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 91-104.
    8. Nadel, Steven & Geller, Howard, 1996. "Utility DSM : What have we learned? Where are we going?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 289-302, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska & Katarzyna Maciejowska & Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Going green: Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of dynamic electricity tariffs," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    2. Blarke, Morten B. & Jenkins, Bryan M., 2013. "SuperGrid or SmartGrid: Competing strategies for large-scale integration of intermittent renewables?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 381-390.
    3. Clastres, Cédric, 2011. "Smart grids: Another step towards competition, energy security and climate change objectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5399-5408, September.
    4. Lin, Chen-Chun & Yang, Chia-Han & Shyua, Joseph Z., 2013. "A comparison of innovation policy in the smart grid industry across the pacific: China and the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 119-132.
    5. Cédric Clastres, 2011. "Smart grids : Another step towards competition, energy security and climate change objectives," Post-Print halshs-00617702, HAL.

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