IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v144y2020ics0301421520304201.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions

Author

Listed:
  • Sziklai, Balázs R.
  • Kóczy, László Á.
  • Csercsik, Dávid

Abstract

We investigate the impact and the possible consequences of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. We model the European gas network as a cooperative game between regions as players over the pipeline network. Our model offers several novelties compared to earlier cooperative studies. Firstly, we focus on cost saving rather than on the profits of cooperation. Secondly, we introduce liquefied natural gas as a player. Thirdly, we apply an iterative linear program to account for the long term bilateral contracts that still drive the gas market. This modelling technique also allows us to identify individual gas flows. We focus on the change of influence of the players in three different scenarios. We investigate how the power of the agents shift when the Nord Stream pipeline is expanded, when the Ukrainian pipeline is shut down and finally when both of these happen. Our calculations show that when Nord Stream 2 is operational, Russia and Western Europe improve their position compared to the base scenario, while other suppliers, notably Norway, together with Central- Eastern- and Southern Europe suffer losses, especially when the Ukrainian route is dismissed. The results highlight that both the supporters and adversaries of Nord Stream 2 are governed by self-interest and solidarity and trust, the values proclaimed by the EU and the Energy Union, remain but a slogan.

Suggested Citation

  • Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á. & Csercsik, Dávid, 2020. "The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520304201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520304201
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111692?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathalie Hinchey, 2018. "The Impact of Securing Alternative Energy Sources on Russian-European Natural Gas Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    2. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    3. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek & Arild Moe & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Hilde Hallre Le Tissier, 2017. "The Future of Russian Gas Exports," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Hubert Franz & Cobanli Onur, 2015. "Pipeline Power: A Case Study of Strategic Network Investments," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 75-110, June.
    5. Holz, Franziska & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia, 2008. "A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 766-788, May.
    6. Csaba Weiner, 2016. "Central and East European diversification under new gas market conditions," IWE Working Papers 221, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    7. Roberto Roson & Franz Hubert, 2015. "Bargaining Power and Value Sharing in Distribution Networks: A Cooperative Game Theory Approach," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 71-87, March.
    8. Visenescu, Ramona S., 2018. "Russian-ASEAN cooperation in the natural gas sector. Lessons from the Russian-Vietnamese relation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 515-517.
    9. Csercsik, Dávid & Hubert, Franz & Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á., 2019. "Modeling transfer profits as externalities in a cooperative game-theoretic model of natural gas networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 355-365.
    10. Bouwmeester, Maaike C. & Oosterhaven, J., 2017. "Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 288-297.
    11. Franz Hubert & Svetlana Ikonnikova, 2011. "Investment Options And Bargaining Power: The Eurasian Supply Chain For Natural Gas," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 85-116, March.
    12. Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
    13. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 39-51.
    14. Barnes, Alex, 2017. "Nord Stream 2 � Friend or enemy of energy security in Europe?," CEPS Papers 13325, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    15. Cobanli, Onur, 2014. "Central Asian gas in Eurasian power game," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 348-370.
    16. Kóczy, László Á., 2012. "Beyond Lisbon: Demographic trends and voting power in the European Union Council of Ministers," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 152-158.
    17. Dastan, Seyit Ali, 2018. "Negotiation of a cross-border natural gas pipeline: An analytical contribution to the discussions on Turkish Stream," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 749-760.
    18. Ibrahim Abada & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2013. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1308, Chaire Economie du climat.
    19. Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2483-2492.
    20. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    21. Márton Benedek & Jörg Fliege & Tri-Dung Nguyen, 2020. "Finding and verifying the nucleolus of cooperative games," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2021, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    22. Perner, J. & Seeliger, A., 2004. "Prospects of gas supplies to the European market until 2030--results from the simulation model EUGAS," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 291-302, December.
    23. SCHMEIDLER, David, 1969. "The nucleolus of a characteristic function game," LIDAM Reprints CORE 44, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    24. Vatansever, Adnan, 2017. "Is Russia building too many pipelines? Explaining Russia's oil and gas export strategy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-11.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe T. Cirella & Alessio Russo & Federico Benassi & Ernest Czermański & Anatoliy G. Goncharuk & Aneta Oniszczuk-Jastrzabek, 2021. "Energy Re-Shift for an Urbanizing World," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Filip Božić & Daria Karasalihović Sedlar & Ivan Smajla & Ivana Ivančić, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Natural Gas Physical Flows for Europe via Ukraine in 2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Mišík, Matúš, 2022. "The EU needs to improve its external energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Christine Sturm, 2022. "Between a rock and a hard place: European energy policy and complexity in the wake of the Ukraine war," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 835-878, December.
    5. Hauser, Philipp, 2021. "Does ‘more’ equal ‘better’? – Analyzing the impact of diversification strategies on infrastructure in the European gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Wood, Steve & Henke, Otto, 2021. "Denmark and Nord Stream 2: A small state's role in global energy politics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    7. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2023. "Global energy supply risk: Evidence from the reactions of European natural gas futures to Nord Stream announcements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. V. A. Volkonsky & A. I. Kuzovkin, 2021. "Benefits and Losses for European Countries from the Northern Stream-2 Gas Pipeline: Overview of Estimates by Scientists and Energy Industries," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 689-694, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balazs Sziklai & Laszlo A. Koczy & David Csercsik, 2018. "The geopolitical impact of Nord Stream 2," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1821, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Csercsik, Dávid & Hubert, Franz & Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á., 2019. "Modeling transfer profits as externalities in a cooperative game-theoretic model of natural gas networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 355-365.
    3. Selei, Adrienn & Takácsné Tóth, Borbála, 2022. "A modelling-based assessment of EU supported natural gas projects of common interest," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Tóth, Borbála Takácsné & Kotek, Péter & Selei, Adrienn, 2020. "Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. András Kiss, Adrienn Selei, and Borbála Takácsné Tóth, 2016. "A Top-Down Approach to Evaluating Cross-Border Natural Gas Infrastructure Projects in Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    6. Veronika Grimm & Lars Schewe & Martin Schmidt & Gregor Zöttl, 2019. "A multilevel model of the European entry-exit gas market," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 89(2), pages 223-255, April.
    7. Chi Kong Chyong & David Reiner & Dhruvak Aggarwal, 2021. "Market power and long-term gas contracts: the case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets," Working Papers EPRG2115, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
    9. Hubert, Franz & Orlova, Ekaterina, 2018. "Network access and market power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 170-185.
    10. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    11. Adrienn Selei & Borbála Tóth & Gustav Resch & László Szabó & Lukas Liebmann & Péter Kaderják, 2017. "How far is mitigation of Russian gas dependency possible through energy efficiency and renewable policies assuming different gas market structures?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(1-2), pages 54-69, March.
    12. Svetlana V. Ratner & Evgenii Yu. Khrustalev & Sergey N. Larin & Oleg E. Khrustalev, 2020. "Does the Development of Renewable Energy and Smart Grids Pose Risks for Russian Gas Projects? Scenario Forecast for Partner Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 286-293.
    13. Eser, P. & Chokani, N. & Abhari, R., 2019. "Impact of Nord Stream 2 and LNG on gas trade and security of supply in the European gas network of 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 816-830.
    14. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    15. Ibrahim Abada & Andreas Ehrenmann, 2016. "The prisoner’s dilemma in Cournot models: when endogenizing the level of competition leads to competitive behaviors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Aram Lee & Jeonghwan Kim, 2023. "Analysis of Bargaining Power between the EU and Russia by Altering Gas Supply Network Structure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-12, March.
    17. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    18. Stevie Lochran, 2021. "GNOME: A Dynamic Dispatch and Investment Optimisation Model of the European Natural Gas Network and Its Suppliers," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-44, December.
    19. Avraam, Charalampos & Chu, Daniel & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2020. "Natural gas infrastructure development in North America under integrated markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    20. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520304201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.