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The Future of Russian Gas Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Finn Roar Aune
  • Rolf Golombek
  • Arild Moe
  • Knut Einar Rosendahl
  • Hilde Hallre Le Tissier

Abstract

Disputes between Russia and Ukraine over the terms for gas transit and deliveries prompted Russia to accelerate development of new gas pipelines to Europe circumventing Ukraine, as well as exploring the potential for gas export to additional markets like Turkey and China. The current paper examines implications of Russia increasing its gas exports capacity by building Nord Stream 2 (to Germany), Turkish Stream (to Turkey and Greece) and Power of Siberia (to China). We find that these projects have moderate effect on Russian gas exports and also that the impact on the European natural gas market is minor. We have also examined the impact of new Russian export pipes if subsidies to large Russian natural gas consumers are halved, or there are no sales to, or transit via, Ukraine. We find that the effects of increased export capacity are much stronger in these cases. The main policy implication of our study is that the EU and Russia have common interest in supporting further integration of European markets, although for somewhat different reasons. Russia wants to sustain, or increase, its exports to Europe, whereas the EU wants to make sure that the market functions well and that no country becomes vulnerable to pressure from Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek & Arild Moe & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Hilde Hallre Le Tissier, 2017. "The Future of Russian Gas Exports," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:eeepjl:eeep6-2-rosendahl
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2022. "Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á. & Csercsik, Dávid, 2020. "The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Frondel, Manuel & Sommer, Stephan, 2018. "Der Preis der Energiewende: Anstieg der Kostenbelastung einkommensschwacher Haushalte," RWI Materialien 128, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    4. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek, 2020. "Are carbon prices redundant in the 2030 EU climate and energy policy package?," Discussion Papers 940, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Chi Kong Chyong & David Reiner & Dhruvak Aggarwal, 2021. "Market power and long-term gas contracts: the case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets," Working Papers EPRG2115, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    6. Kateryna Yakovenko & Matúš Mišík, 2020. "Cooperation and Security: Examining the Political Discourse on Natural Gas Transit in Ukraine and Slovakia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-14, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian gas export; Russia-Ukraine natural gas disputes; Turkish Stream; Russia-China natural gas trade agreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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