IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v144y2020ics0301421520304080.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heat demand in the Swedish residential building stock - pathways on demand reduction potential based on socio-technical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Savvidou, Georgia
  • Nykvist, Björn

Abstract

A transition to a more efficient heat energy system requires the consideration of drivers covering behavioural change, upgrades of the building stock and substitution or improvements in technologies in use. Sweden has set the target to reduce total energy demand per heated area in buildings by 50% by 2050 compared to 1995. This study aims to estimate the potential for reducing heat energy demand in the Swedish residential building stock taking into account behavioural, structural and technological categories of drivers. A combination of bottom-up energy modelling with scenario methodology informed by socio-technical analysis of barriers was used. Our results show that the target can be achieved by combining at least two of the categories of drivers. However, it is noteworthy that the technological category, which has by far the lowest level of barriers, almost reaches the target largely owing to the high impact for single-family houses, showing the crucial role of changes in the technology mix. However, as the same drivers have different demand reduction potential in the two main building types in Sweden, single and multi-family houses, this calls for policymakers to lead on initiatives that foster a combination of technological, behavioural and structural improvements for the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Savvidou, Georgia & Nykvist, Björn, 2020. "Heat demand in the Swedish residential building stock - pathways on demand reduction potential based on socio-technical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520304080
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111679
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520304080
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111679?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Egbue, Ona & Long, Suzanna, 2012. "Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: An analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 717-729.
    2. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    3. Unander, Fridtjof & Ettestol, Ingunn & Ting, Mike & Schipper, Lee, 2004. "Residential energy use: an international perspective on long-term trends in Denmark, Norway and Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1395-1404, August.
    4. Ballarini, Ilaria & Corgnati, Stefano Paolo & Corrado, Vincenzo, 2014. "Use of reference buildings to assess the energy saving potentials of the residential building stock: The experience of TABULA project," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-284.
    5. Siller, Thomas & Kost, Michael & Imboden, Dieter, 2007. "Long-term energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the Swiss residential sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 529-539, January.
    6. Åberg, M. & Henning, D., 2011. "Optimisation of a Swedish district heating system with reduced heat demand due to energy efficiency measures in residential buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7839-7852.
    7. Lund, H. & Möller, B. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Dyrelund, A., 2010. "The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1381-1390.
    8. Turnheim, Bruno & Nykvist, Björn, 2019. "Opening up the feasibility of sustainability transitions pathways (STPs): Representations, potentials, and conditions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 775-788.
    9. Mata, Érika & Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "Energy usage and technical potential for energy saving measures in the Swedish residential building stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 404-414.
    10. Blesl, Markus & Das, Anjana & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe, 2007. "Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 772-785, February.
    11. Johansson, P. & Nylander, A. & Johnsson, F., 2006. "Electricity dependency and CO2 emissions from heating in the Swedish building sector--Current trends in conflict with governmental policy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3049-3064, November.
    12. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    13. Nassen, Jonas & Holmberg, John, 2005. "Energy efficiency--a forgotten goal in the Swedish building sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1037-1051, May.
    14. Sartori, Igor & Wachenfeldt, Bjrn Jensen & Hestnes, Anne Grete, 2009. "Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1614-1627, May.
    15. Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
    16. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Werner, S. & Möller, B. & Persson, U. & Boermans, T. & Trier, D. & Østergaard, P.A. & Nielsen, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 475-489.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jenny von Platten & Karl de Fine Licht & Mikael Mangold & Kristina Mjörnell, 2021. "Renovating on Unequal Premises: A Normative Framework for a Just Renovation Wave in Swedish Multifamily Housing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-32, September.
    2. Hietaharju, Petri & Pulkkinen, Jari & Ruusunen, Mika & Louis, Jean-Nicolas, 2021. "A stochastic dynamic building stock model for determining long-term district heating demand under future climate change," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    3. Anna Grzegórska & Piotr Rybarczyk & Valdas Lukoševičius & Joanna Sobczak & Andrzej Rogala, 2021. "Smart Asset Management for District Heating Systems in the Baltic Sea Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Nilsson, David & Karpouzoglou, Timos & Wallin, Jörgen & Blomkvist, Pär & Golzar, Farzin & Martin, Viktoria, 2023. "Is on-property heat and greywater recovery a sustainable option? A quantitative and qualitative assessment up to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. Krumm, Alexandra & Süsser, Diana & Blechinger, Philipp, 2022. "Modelling social aspects of the energy transition: What is the current representation of social factors in energy models?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nilsson, Måns & Dzebo, Adis & Savvidou, Georgia & Axelsson, Katarina, 2020. "A bridging framework for studying transition pathways – From systems models to local action in the Swedish heating domain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Bischof, Julian & Duffy, Aidan, 2022. "Life-cycle assessment of non-domestic building stocks: A meta-analysis of current modelling methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Hanan S.S. Ibrahim & Ahmed Z. Khan & Shady Attia & Yehya Serag, 2021. "Classification of Heritage Residential Building Stock and Defining Sustainable Retrofitting Scenarios in Khedivial Cairo," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Pasichnyi, Oleksii & Wallin, Jörgen & Kordas, Olga, 2019. "Data-driven building archetypes for urban building energy modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 360-377.
    6. Kazas, Georgios & Fabrizio, Enrico & Perino, Marco, 2017. "Energy demand profile generation with detailed time resolution at an urban district scale: A reference building approach and case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 243-262.
    7. Ballarini, Ilaria & Corrado, Vincenzo & Madonna, Francesco & Paduos, Simona & Ravasio, Franco, 2017. "Energy refurbishment of the Italian residential building stock: energy and cost analysis through the application of the building typology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 148-160.
    8. András Mezősi & Enikő Kácsor & à kos Beöthy & à gnes Törőcsik & László Szabó, 2017. "Modelling support policies and renewable energy sources deployment in the Hungarian district heating sector," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(1-2), pages 70-87, March.
    9. Aurora Greta Ruggeri & Laura Gabrielli & Massimiliano Scarpa, 2020. "Energy Retrofit in European Building Portfolios: A Review of Five Key Aspects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-38, September.
    10. Theodoridou, Ifigeneia & Karteris, Marinos & Mallinis, Georgios & Papadopoulos, Agis M. & Hegger, Manfred, 2012. "Assessment of retrofitting measures and solar systems' potential in urban areas using Geographical Information Systems: Application to a Mediterranean city," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 6239-6261.
    11. Knobloch, Florian & Pollitt, Hector & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Lewney, Richard & Huijbregts, Mark A.J. & Mercure, Jean-Francois, 2021. "FTT:Heat — A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Soares, N. & Martins, A.G. & Carvalho, A.L. & Caldeira, C. & Du, C. & Castanheira, É. & Rodrigues, E. & Oliveira, G. & Pereira, G.I. & Bastos, J. & Ferreira, J.P. & Ribeiro, L.A. & Figueiredo, N.C. & , 2018. "The challenging paradigm of interrelated energy systems towards a more sustainable future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 171-193.
    13. Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Guivarch, Céline & Quirion, Philippe, 2012. "Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 426-445.
    14. Yang, Xiu'e & Liu, Shuli & Zou, Yuliang & Ji, Wenjie & Zhang, Qunli & Ahmed, Abdullahi & Han, Xiaojing & Shen, Yongliang & Zhang, Shaoliang, 2022. "Energy-saving potential prediction models for large-scale building: A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    15. Copiello, Sergio & Grillenzoni, Carlo, 2017. "Is the cold the only reason why we heat our homes? Empirical evidence from spatial series data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 491-506.
    16. Yang, Yuchen & Javanroodi, Kavan & Nik, Vahid M., 2021. "Climate change and energy performance of European residential building stocks – A comprehensive impact assessment using climate big data from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    17. Gabillet, Pauline, 2015. "Energy supply and urban planning projects: Analysing tensions around district heating provision in a French eco-district," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 189-197.
    18. Mezősi, András & Beöthy, Ákos & Kácsor, Enikő & Törőcsik, Ágnes, 2016. "A magyarországi távhő-szabályozás modellezése. A megújuló energiára alapozott hőtermelés [Modelling policy options in the district heating sector, with a focus on renewable consumption]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1149-1176.
    19. Streicher, Kai Nino & Berger, Matthias & Panos, Evangelos & Narula, Kapil & Soini, Martin Christoph & Patel, Martin K., 2021. "Optimal building retrofit pathways considering stock dynamics and climate change impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Hanan Ibrahim & Ahmed Z. Khan & Shady Attia & Yehya Serag, 2021. "Classification of heritage residential building stock and defining sustainable retrofitting scenarios in Khedivial Cairo," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/326195, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520304080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.