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Implications of EMF 34 scenarios on renewable deployment and carbon abatement in Canada: Insights from a regionalized energy model

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  • Bahn, Olivier
  • Vaillancourt, Kathleen

Abstract

This paper proposes a detailed analysis of the evolution of Canadian energy systems under some selected EMF (Energy Modeling Forum) 34 scenarios. Our analysis is based on NATEM, an energy model that follows the TIMES approach of the International Energy Agency to represent in detail the energy sector of each of the 13 Canadian provinces and territories. NATEM shows that imposing different renewable penetration constraints for electricity generation has limited impacts outside the electricity sector. In particular, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to increase over time. Conversely, the imposition of a carbon tax has broader impacts on Canadian energy systems and on GHG emissions that are almost stabilized. However, the level of the carbon tax envisions by the EMF 34 study (increasing to a maximum level of $130 per tonne by 2050) is not high enough, in a Canadian context, to trigger a decrease of GHG emissions over time as mandated by Canadian climate policies.

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  • Bahn, Olivier & Vaillancourt, Kathleen, 2020. "Implications of EMF 34 scenarios on renewable deployment and carbon abatement in Canada: Insights from a regionalized energy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:142:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520302639
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
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    3. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Levasseur, Annie, 2019. "The role of bioenergy in low-carbon energy transition scenarios: A case study for Quebec (Canada)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 24-34.
    4. Levasseur, Annie & Bahn, Olivier & Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier & Marinova, Mariya & Vaillancourt, Kathleen, 2017. "Assessing butanol from integrated forest biorefinery: A combined techno-economic and life cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 440-452.
    5. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Roy, Pierre-Olivier & Patreau, Valérie, 2018. "Is there a future for new hydrocarbon projects in a decarbonizing energy system? A case study for Quebec (Canada)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 114-130.
    6. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Frenette, Erik & Sigvaldason, Oskar, 2017. "Exploring deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 for Canada using an optimization energy model framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 774-785.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Xuelin & An, Chunjiang & Chen, Zhikun, 2023. "The role of clean energy in achieving decarbonization of electricity generation, transportation, and heating sectors by 2050: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Arbuckle, Evan J. & Binsted, Matthew & Davies, Evan G.R. & Chiappori, Diego V. & Bergero, Candelaria & Siddiqui, Muhammad-Shahid & Roney, Christopher & McJeon, Haewon C. & Zhou, Yuyu & Macaluso, Nick, 2021. "Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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