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Assessing the risk profile to security of supply in the electricity market of Great Britain

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  • Castro, Manuel

Abstract

Security of electricity supply has been an important topic of growing concern in the United Kingdom as the margin of supply over demand tightens and the risk to security of supply widens. The risk profile to security of supply is presented, in the United Kingdom, in terms of the conventional metrics capacity margin and loss of load expectation. However, increasing levels of disruption in the power sector, arising from a combination of policy, technological and customer change, challenge this traditional approach to characterise the risk to security of supply. The paper presents a framework to evaluate the risk profile to security of supply through a series of probabilistic metrics that establish the expected magnitude (power and energy), likelihood, frequency and duration of encountering supply shortfalls. This detailed characterisation of the risk profile enables risks to be fully identified, assessed and prioritised facilitating effective risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Castro, Manuel, 2017. "Assessing the risk profile to security of supply in the electricity market of Great Britain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 148-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:111:y:2017:i:c:p:148-156
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.09.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Pin Li & Jin-Suo Zhang, 2018. "A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-28, June.
    3. Abadie, Luis Ma & Chamorro, José M., 2019. "Physical adequacy of a power generation system: The case of Spain in the long term," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 637-652.
    4. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    5. Veldhuis, Anton Johannes & Leach, Matthew & Yang, Aidong, 2018. "The impact of increased decentralised generation on the reliability of an existing electricity network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 479-502.

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