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Competitiveness of advanced and conventional biofuels: Results from least-cost modelling of biofuel competition in Germany

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  • Millinger, M.
  • Ponitka, J.
  • Arendt, O.
  • Thrän, D.

Abstract

Techno-economic variables for advanced biofuels produced from lignocellulosic biomass have been scrutinized and combined with a newly developed transparent model for simulating the competitiveness between conventional and advanced biofuels for road transport in the medium to long term in Germany. The influence of learning effects and feedstock cost developments has been highlighted, including also gaseous fuels. Thorough sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Previously reported cost assumptions for advanced biofuels were found to have been too optimistic. The most cost-competitive biofuels for most of the time period remained conventional biodiesel and bioethanol, but the costs of these options and biomethane and Synthetic Natural Gas (bio-SNG) converged in the medium term and thus other factors will play a decisive role for market developments of biofuels. Feedstock cost uncertainties for the future remain a challenge for long-term planning, and low-cost short-rotation coppice may change the picture more than any other parameter. Of the advanced biofuels, bio-SNG was found significantly more cost-competitive and resource efficient than Fischer-Tropsch-diesel and lignocellulose-based ethanol, but still requiring a dedicated long-term policy. The results and the large sensitivities of biofuel competitiveness stress the need for more data transparency and for thorough sensitivity analyses of the results in similar system studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Millinger, M. & Ponitka, J. & Arendt, O. & Thrän, D., 2017. "Competitiveness of advanced and conventional biofuels: Results from least-cost modelling of biofuel competition in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 394-402.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:394-402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.013
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    1. Kathleen Meisel & Markus Millinger & Karin Naumann & Franziska Müller-Langer & Stefan Majer & Daniela Thrän, 2020. "Future Renewable Fuel Mixes in Transport in Germany under RED II and Climate Protection Targets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Vasilakou, Konstantina & Nimmegeers, Philippe & Thomassen, Gwenny & Billen, Pieter & Van Passel, Steven, 2023. "Assessing the future of second-generation bioethanol by 2030 – A techno-economic assessment integrating technology learning curves," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    3. Millinger, M. & Reichenberg, L. & Hedenus, F. & Berndes, G. & Zeyen, E. & Brown, T., 2022. "Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    4. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    5. Bryngemark, Elina, 2019. "Second generation biofuels and the competition for forest raw materials: A partial equilibrium analysis of Sweden," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Kulisic, Biljana & Dimitriou, Ioannis & Mola-Yudego, Blas, 2021. "From preferences to concerted policy on mandated share for renewable energy in transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven & Dewulf, Jo, 2020. "A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Markus Millinger & Kathleen Meisel & Maik Budzinski & Daniela Thrän, 2018. "Relative Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Competitiveness of Biofuels in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Aui, Alvina & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Cellulosic ethanol production: Assessment of the impacts of learning and plant capacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. Qing Guo & Wenlan You, 2023. "Evaluating the International Competitiveness of RCEP Countries’ Biomass Products in the Context of the New Development Paradigm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-27, February.
    11. Harahap, Fumi & Silveira, Semida & Khatiwada, Dilip, 2019. "Cost competitiveness of palm oil biodiesel production in Indonesia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 62-72.

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