IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v68y2017icp423-439.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk-minimisation in electricity markets: Fixed price, unknown consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Tegnér, Martin
  • Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal
  • Skajaa, Anders
  • Poulsen, Rolf

Abstract

This paper analyses risk management of fixed price, unspecified consumption contracts in energy markets. We model the joint dynamics of the spot-price and the consumption of electricity, study expected loss minimisation for different loss measures, and derive optimal static hedge strategies based on forward contracts. The strategies are implemented empirically and compared to a benchmark strategy widely used by the industry. On 2012–2014 Nordic market data, the suggested hedges significantly outperform the benchmark: The realised cumulative profit-and-losses are greater for almost every single one-month period and the hourly realised payoffs result in an approximate 65% out-performance probability. Hedges based on asymmetric loss measures yield markedly higher reward-to-risk ratios than the benchmark, which can be exploited to release a premium from the contract in the financially significant order of 1.5% of the fixed price.

Suggested Citation

  • Tegnér, Martin & Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal & Skajaa, Anders & Poulsen, Rolf, 2017. "Risk-minimisation in electricity markets: Fixed price, unknown consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 423-439.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:423-439
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.10.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988317303559
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.10.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. St'ephane Goutte & Nadia Oudjane & Francesco Russo, 2013. "Variance optimal hedging for continuous time additive processes and applications," Papers 1302.1965, arXiv.org.
    2. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Porcher, Simon & Porcher, Thomas, 2015. "Hedging strategies in energy markets: The case of electricity retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 503-509.
    3. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2309-2340, December.
    4. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, January.
    5. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    6. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
    7. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
    8. Willems, Bert & Morbee, Joris, 2010. "Market completeness: How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 786-795, July.
    9. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
    10. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    11. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    12. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gung, Roger R. & Huang, Chun-Che & Hung, Wen-I & Fang, Yu-Jie, 2020. "The use of hybrid analytics to establish effective strategies for household energy conservation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Li, Yanbin & Wang, Jiani & Wang, Weiye & Liu, Chang & Li, Yun, 2023. "Dynamic pricing based electric vehicle charging station location strategy using reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Mayer, Klaus & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Electricity markets around the world," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 77-100.
    3. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    4. Debbie Dupuis, Geneviève Gauthier, and Fréderic Godin, 2016. "Short-term Hedging for an Electricity Retailer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    5. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodríguez, Rosa & Mayoral, Silvia, 2020. "Tail risk of electricity futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez, 2018. "Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    7. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    8. Vazquez, Miguel & Barquín, Julián, 2009. "A fundamental power price model with oligopolistic competition representation," MPRA Paper 15629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    10. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    11. Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal & Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Tegnér, Martin & Skajaa, Anders, 2017. "Hedging local volume risk using forward markets: Nordic case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 490-514.
    12. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    13. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    14. Russo, Marianna & Kraft, Emil & Bertsch, Valentin & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Short-term risk management of electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Zarnikau, J. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K., 2020. "Determinants of the wholesale prices of energy and ancillary services in the U.S. Midcontinent electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    16. Souhir, Ben Amor & Heni, Boubaker & Lotfi, Belkacem, 2019. "Price risk and hedging strategies in Nord Pool electricity market evidence with sector indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-655.
    17. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Jay Zarnikau, Jack Moore, Brendan Schneiderman, Tony Ho, and Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    18. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    19. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    20. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantity risk; Electricity markets; Hedging; Fixed price contracts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:423-439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.