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Do the prices of stock index futures in Asia overreact to U.S. market returns?

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  • Fung, Alexander Kwok-Wah
  • Lam, Kin
  • Lam, Ka-Ming
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    Abstract

    We extend the overreaction study to interaction of international markets and find that intraday price reversals exist in Asian index futures markets following extreme movement in U.S. market. Profitable opportunities exist after considering transaction cost. We show that the reversal cannot be explained by rational arguments such as risk, liquidity and bid-ask spread. We further observe that a magnitude effect exists. Overreaction is more prominent in the latter period than in the initial period. After calm-down periods, overreaction is greatly reduced. These observations support the explanation that the source of price reversals lies in behavioral biases.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 428-440

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:428-440

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Behavioral finance Overreaction Asian futures markets International finance Investors' sentiment;

    References

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    1. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
    2. Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton, 2002. "Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 575-606, March.
    3. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    6. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
    7. Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1988. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Grant, James L. & Wolf, Avner & Yu, Susana, 2005. "Intraday price reversals in the US stock index futures market: A 15-year study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1311-1327, May.
    9. Jonathan Lewellen, 2002. "Momentum and Autocorrelation in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 533-564, March.
    10. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1113-1145, 06.
    11. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    12. Kwok-Wah Fung, Alexander & Lam, Kin, 2004. "Overreaction of index futures in Hong Kong," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 331-351, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jusoh, Hashim & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "Multi-scale Lead-Lag Relationship between the Stock and Futures Markets: Malaysia as a Case Study," MPRA Paper 56954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Thomas Dimpfl & Robert C. Jung, 2012. "Financial market spillovers around the globe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 45-57, January.
    3. Lu, Tsung-Hsun, 2014. "The profitability of candlestick charting in the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 65-78.

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