IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v293y2021i3p811-825.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio decision analysis: Recent developments and future prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Liesiö, Juuso
  • Salo, Ahti
  • Keisler, Jeffrey M.
  • Morton, Alec

Abstract

Portfolio decision analysis (PDA) refers to the body of theory, methods and practice which support decision makers in making informed multiple selections from a set of alternatives with the help of mathematical models that account for relevant constraints, preferences and uncertainties. In this review, we take stock of recent advances in PDA research, based on a representative sample of 148 PDA articles in operations research and management science journals from 2006 to 2019. In particular, we analyse relevant methodologies and discuss prominent PDA application areas. Our analysis indicates that PDA is a vibrant research field with close ties to practice, as a substantial share of articles present real applications or contain illustrative examples which are motivated by such applications. For continued knowledge accumulation, there is substantial promise in exploiting PDA concepts in deriving recommendations from decision models for problems which may not have been viewed as PDA problems; fostering the cross-fertilization of conceptual and methodological advances across application areas; and ensuring that new methodological advances are systematically evaluated through engagements with real decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Keisler, Jeffrey M. & Morton, Alec, 2021. "Portfolio decision analysis: Recent developments and future prospects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 811-825.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:293:y:2021:i:3:p:811-825
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.12.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221720310432
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.12.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schilling, Andreas & Werners, Brigitte, 2016. "Optimal selection of IT security safeguards from an existing knowledge base," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(1), pages 318-327.
    2. Ahti Salo & Jeffrey Keisler & Alec Morton, 2011. "An Invitation to Portfolio Decision Analysis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Ahti Salo & Jeffrey Keisler & Alec Morton (ed.), Portfolio Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 3-27, Springer.
    3. Chien-Ming Chen & Joe Zhu, 2011. "Efficient Resource Allocation via Efficiency Bootstraps: An Application to R&D Project Budgeting," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 729-741, June.
    4. Nikolaos Argyris & Alec Morton & José Rui Figueira, 2014. "CUT: A Multicriteria Approach for Concavifiable Preferences," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 633-642, June.
    5. Gutjahr, Walter J. & Katzensteiner, Stefan & Reiter, Peter & Stummer, Christian & Denk, Michaela, 2010. "Multi-objective decision analysis for competence-oriented project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 670-679, September.
    6. Sawik, Tadeusz, 2013. "Selection of resilient supply portfolio under disruption risks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 259-269.
    7. Liesiö, Juuso & Mild, Pekka & Salo, Ahti, 2008. "Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(3), pages 679-695, November.
    8. Alec Morton & Jeffrey M. Keisler & Ahti Salo, 2016. "Multicriteria Portfolio Decision Analysis for Project Selection," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Salvatore Greco & Matthias Ehrgott & José Rui Figueira (ed.), Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 1269-1298, Springer.
    9. Kangaspunta, Jussi & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2012. "Cost-efficiency analysis of weapon system portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 264-275.
    10. Mara Airoldi & Alec Morton, 2011. "Portfolio Decision Analysis for Population Health," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Ahti Salo & Jeffrey Keisler & Alec Morton (ed.), Portfolio Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 359-381, Springer.
    11. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Robust portfolio decision analysis: An application to the energy research and development portfolio problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 1107-1120.
    12. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2014. "Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 772-783.
    13. Walter Gutjahr & Stefan Katzensteiner & Peter Reiter & Christian Stummer & Michaela Denk, 2008. "Competence-driven project portfolio selection, scheduling and staff assignment," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 16(3), pages 281-306, September.
    14. Hassanzadeh, Farhad & Modarres, Mohammad & Nemati, Hamid R. & Amoako-Gyampah, Kwasi, 2014. "A robust R&D project portfolio optimization model for pharmaceutical contract research organizations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 18-27.
    15. Mancuso, A. & Compare, M. & Salo, A. & Zio, E. & Laakso, T., 2016. "Risk-based optimization of pipe inspections in large underground networks with imprecise information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 228-238.
    16. Chowdhury, Md. Maruf Hossan & Quaddus, Mohammed A., 2015. "A multiple objective optimization based QFD approach for efficient resilient strategies to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities: The case of garment industry of Bangladesh☆,☆☆☆This manuscript was pro," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 5-21.
    17. Robert T. Clemen & James E. Smith, 2009. "On the Choice of Baselines in Multiattribute Portfolio Analysis: A Cautionary Note," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 256-262, December.
    18. Morton, Alec, 2015. "Measurement issues in the evaluation of projects in a project portfolio," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 789-796.
    19. Mancuso, A. & Compare, M. & Salo, A. & Zio, E., 2017. "Portfolio optimization of safety measures for reducing risks in nuclear systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 20-29.
    20. Liesiö, Juuso & Punkka, Antti, 2014. "Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 946-956.
    21. Doerner, K.F. & Gutjahr, W.J. & Hartl, R.F. & Strauss, C. & Stummer, C., 2006. "Pareto ant colony optimization with ILP preprocessing in multiobjective project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(3), pages 830-841, June.
    22. Qiulin Guo & Jianzhong Li & Caineng Zou & Yujuan Guo & Wei Yan, 2012. "A class of multi-period semi-variance portfolio for petroleum exploration and development," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1883-1890.
    23. Fang, Yong & Chen, Lihua & Fukushima, Masao, 2008. "A mixed R&D projects and securities portfolio selection model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 700-715, March.
    24. Marion S. Rauner & Walter J. Gutjahr & Kurt Heidenberger & Joachim Wagner & Joseph Pasia, 2010. "Dynamic Policy Modeling for Chronic Diseases: Metaheuristic-Based Identification of Pareto-Optimal Screening Strategies," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1269-1286, October.
    25. Cranmer, Alexana & Baker, Erin & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2018. "A portfolio model for siting offshore wind farms with economic and environmental objectives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 304-314.
    26. Antti Toppila & Juuso Liesiö & Ahti Salo, 2011. "A Resource Allocation Model for R&D Investments: A Case Study in Telecommunication Standardization," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Ahti Salo & Jeffrey Keisler & Alec Morton (ed.), Portfolio Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 241-258, Springer.
    27. Ville Brummer & Juuso Liesio & Juuso Nissinen & Ahti Salo, 2011. "Identification of Prospective Collaboration Networks in International R&D Programmes," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 56-66.
    28. Hartmann, Sönke & Briskorn, Dirk, 2010. "A survey of variants and extensions of the resource-constrained project scheduling problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 1-14, November.
    29. Kolm, Petter N. & Tütüncü, Reha & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "60 Years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 356-371.
    30. Jeffrey M. Keisler & Zachary A. Collier & Eric Chu & Nina Sinatra & Igor Linkov, 2014. "Value of information analysis: the state of application," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 3-23, March.
    31. Hosseininasab, Amin & Ahmadi, Abbas, 2015. "Selecting a supplier portfolio with value, development, and risk consideration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 146-156.
    32. Janne Kettunen & Ahti Salo, 2017. "Estimation of Downside Risks in Project Portfolio Selection," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 26(10), pages 1839-1853, October.
    33. Liesiö, Juuso & Andelmin, Juho & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Efficient allocation of resources to a portfolio of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(2), pages 619-636.
    34. Debarun Bhattacharjya & Jo Eidsvik & Tapan Mukerji, 2013. "The Value of Information in Portfolio Problems with Dependent Projects," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 341-351, December.
    35. Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2012. "Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 162-172.
    36. Cigdem Z. Gurgur & Charles T. Morley, 2008. "Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company Optimizes Infrastructure Project-Portfolio Selection," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 38(4), pages 251-262, August.
    37. Martinez, Lauro J. & Lambert, James H. & Karvetski, Christopher W., 2011. "Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 883-891.
    38. Baker, Erin & Solak, Senay, 2011. "Climate change and optimal energy technology R&D policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 442-454, September.
    39. Eilat, Harel & Golany, Boaz & Shtub, Avraham, 2006. "Constructing and evaluating balanced portfolios of R&D projects with interactions: A DEA based methodology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(3), pages 1018-1039, August.
    40. Barbati, Maria & Greco, Salvatore & Kadziński, Miłosz & Słowiński, Roman, 2018. "Optimization of multiple satisfaction levels in portfolio decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-204.
    41. Montibeller, Gilberto & Franco, L. Alberto & Lord, Ewan & Iglesias, Aline, 2009. "Structuring resource allocation decisions: A framework for building multi-criteria portfolio models with area-grouped options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 846-856, December.
    42. Navindran Davendralingam & Daniel. A. DeLaurentis, 2015. "A Robust Portfolio Optimization Approach to System of System Architectures," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 269-283, May.
    43. Pekka Mild & Ahti Salo, 2009. "Combining a Multiattribute Value Function with an Optimization Model: An Application to Dynamic Resource Allocation for Infrastructure Maintenance," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 139-152, September.
    44. Lawrence Phillips & Carlos Bana e Costa, 2007. "Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 51-68, October.
    45. Fliedner, Thomas & Liesiö, Juuso, 2016. "Adjustable robustness for multi-attribute project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(3), pages 931-946.
    46. Siddhartha Sampath & Esma S. Gel & John W. Fowler & Karl G. Kempf, 2015. "A Decision-Making Framework for Project Portfolio Planning at Intel Corporation," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(5), pages 391-408, October.
    47. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Ilmola-Sheppard, Leena, 2018. "Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 205-220.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gasparini, Gaia & Brunelli, Matteo & Chiriac, Marius Dan, 2022. "Multi-period portfolio decision analysis: A case study in the infrastructure management sector," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
    2. Kraft, Holger & Weiss, Farina, 2023. "Pandemic portfolio choice," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(1), pages 451-462.
    3. Marttunen, Mika & Haara, Arto & Hjerppe, Turo & Kurttila, Mikko & Liesiö, Juuso & Mustajoki, Jyri & Saarikoski, Heli & Tolvanen, Anne, 2023. "Parallel and comparative use of three multicriteria decision support methods in an environmental portfolio problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 842-859.
    4. Fecarotti, Claudia & Andrews, John & Pesenti, Raffaele, 2021. "A mathematical programming model to select maintenance strategies in railway networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Ali Tlili & Oumaima Khaled & Vincent Mousseau & Wassila Ouerdane, 2023. "Interactive portfolio selection involving multicriteria sorting models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(2), pages 1169-1195, June.
    6. Salo, Ahti & Andelmin, Juho & Oliveira, Fabricio, 2022. "Decision programming for mixed-integer multi-stage optimization under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 550-565.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marttunen, Mika & Haara, Arto & Hjerppe, Turo & Kurttila, Mikko & Liesiö, Juuso & Mustajoki, Jyri & Saarikoski, Heli & Tolvanen, Anne, 2023. "Parallel and comparative use of three multicriteria decision support methods in an environmental portfolio problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 842-859.
    2. Mavrotas, George & Makryvelios, Evangelos, 2021. "Combining multiple criteria analysis, mathematical programming and Monte Carlo simulation to tackle uncertainty in Research and Development project portfolio selection: A case study from Greece," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 794-806.
    3. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Ilmola-Sheppard, Leena, 2018. "Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 205-220.
    4. Barbati, Maria & Corrente, Salvatore & Greco, Salvatore, 2020. "A general space-time model for combinatorial optimization problems (and not only)," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Barbati, M. & Figueira, J.R. & Greco, S. & Ishizaka, A. & Panaro, S., 2023. "A multiple criteria methodology for priority based portfolio selection," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Liesiö, Juuso & Kallio, Markku & Argyris, Nikolaos, 2023. "Incomplete risk-preference information in portfolio decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1084-1098.
    7. Harju, Mikko & Liesiö, Juuso & Virtanen, Kai, 2019. "Spatial multi-attribute decision analysis: Axiomatic foundations and incomplete preference information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 167-181.
    8. Liesiö, Juuso & Punkka, Antti, 2014. "Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 946-956.
    9. Liesiö, Juuso & Andelmin, Juho & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Efficient allocation of resources to a portfolio of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(2), pages 619-636.
    10. Javier Panadero & Jana Doering & Renatas Kizys & Angel A. Juan & Angels Fito, 2020. "A variable neighborhood search simheuristic for project portfolio selection under uncertainty," Journal of Heuristics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 353-375, June.
    11. Antti Punkka & Ahti Salo, 2014. "Scale Dependence and Ranking Intervals in Additive Value Models Under Incomplete Preference Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 83-104, June.
    12. Juuso Liesiö, 2014. "Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions for Portfolio Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Ali Tlili & Oumaima Khaled & Vincent Mousseau & Wassila Ouerdane, 2023. "Interactive portfolio selection involving multicriteria sorting models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(2), pages 1169-1195, June.
    14. Barbati, Maria & Greco, Salvatore & Kadziński, Miłosz & Słowiński, Roman, 2018. "Optimization of multiple satisfaction levels in portfolio decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-204.
    15. Doering, Jana & Kizys, Renatas & Juan, Angel A. & Fitó, Àngels & Polat, Onur, 2019. "Metaheuristics for rich portfolio optimisation and risk management: Current state and future trends," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 6(C).
    16. Milford, James & Henrion, Max & Hunter, Chad & Newes, Emily & Hughes, Caroline & Baldwin, Samuel F., 2022. "Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    17. Karl F. Doerner & Vittorio Maniezzo, 2018. "Metaheuristic search techniques for multi-objective and stochastic problems: a history of the inventions of Walter J. Gutjahr in the past 22 years," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(2), pages 331-356, June.
    18. Selin Özpeynirci & Özgür Özpeynirci & Vincent Mousseau, 2021. "An interactive algorithm for resource allocation with balance concerns," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 43(4), pages 983-1005, December.
    19. Morton, Alec, 2015. "Measurement issues in the evaluation of projects in a project portfolio," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 789-796.
    20. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2014. "Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 772-783.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:293:y:2021:i:3:p:811-825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.