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Markov chain test for time dependence and homogeneity: An analytical and empirical evaluation

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  • Tan, Baris
  • Yilmaz, Kamil

Abstract

This paper presents a complete framework for testing procedure based on statistical theory of Markov chains.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCT-44SHF9C-5/2/0610b2a73ba163133fc2acd78497db1a
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 137 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 524-543

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:137:y:2002:i:3:p:524-543

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

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References

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  1. Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  2. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fielitz, Bruce D., 1975. "On the Stationarity of Transition Probability Matrices of Common Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 327-339, June.
  4. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  5. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
  6. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Celia Chen, 1993. "Testing structural stability with endogenous break point: a size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Working Papers 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  9. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1991. " Are Stock Returns Predictable? A Test Using Markov Chains," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 239-63, March.
  10. Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
  11. Dryden, Myles M, 1969. "Share Price Movements: A Markovian Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 49-60, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sumru Altug & Baris Tan & Gozde Gencer, 2011. "Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1101, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  2. Donald Brown & Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Sign Tests for Dependent Observations and Bounds for Path-Dependent Options," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2581, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.
  3. Donald J. Brown & Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Sign Tests for Dependent Observations and Bounds for Path-Dependent Options," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1518, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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