Are Stock Returns Predictable? A Test Using Markov Chains
AbstractThis paper uses a Markov chain model to test the random walk hypothesis of stock prices. Given a time series of returns, a Markov chain is defined by letting one state represent high returns and the other represent low returns. The random walk hypothesis restricts the transition probabilities of the Markov change to be equal irrespective of the prior years. Annual real returns are shown to exhibit significant nonrandom walk behavior in the sense that low (high) returns tend to follow runs of high (low) returns in the postwar period. Copyright 1991 by American Finance Association.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.
Volume (Year): 46 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Tan, Baris & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2002.
"Markov chain test for time dependence and homogeneity: An analytical and empirical evaluation,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 524-543, March.
- Tan, B. & Yilmaz, K., 1999. "Markov Chain Test for Time Dependence and Homogeneity: An Analytical and Empirical Evaluation," Papers 99/03, Koc University.
- Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Miranda, José G.V. & García-Rubio, Raquel, 2013. "How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1631-1637.
- Chiang, Raymond & Davidson, Ian & Okunev, John, 1997.
"Some further theoretical and empirical implications regarding the relationship between earnings, dividends and stock prices,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-35, January.
- R. Chiang & Ian Davidson & John Okunev, 1996. "Some Further Theoretical and Empirical Implications Regarding the Relationship between Earnings, Dividends and Returns," Working Paper Series 60, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Chiang, Raymond & Liu, Peter & Okunev, John, 1995. "Modelling mean reversion of asset prices towards their fundamental value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1327-1340, November.
- Paul Zimmerman & John Yun & Christopher Taylor, 2013. "Edgeworth Price Cycles in Gasoline: Evidence from the United States," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 297-320, May.
- Emekter, Riza & Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Snaith, Sean M., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange excess returns: Tests of asymmetry," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 179-192, July.
- Wang, Tao & Yang, Jian, 2010. "Nonlinearity and intraday efficiency tests on energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 496-503, March.
- N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2004. "Causality and error correction in Markov chain: Inflation in India revisited," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 366, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
- Chen, Son-Nan & Jeon, Kisuk, 1998. "Mean reversion behavior of the returns on currency assets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 185-200.
- Juan Reboredo & José Matías & Raquel Garcia-Rubio, 2012. "Nonlinearity in Forecasting of High-Frequency Stock Returns," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 245-264, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.