Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: A change-point perspective
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.039
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Xiaofeng Shao, 2010. "Corrigendum: A self‐normalized approach to confidence interval construction in time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(5), pages 695-696, November.
- Oleksandr Gromenko & Piotr Kokoszka & Matthew Reimherr, 2017. "Detection of change in the spatiotemporal mean function," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(1), pages 29-50, January.
- Alexander Aue & Lajos Horváth, 2013. "Structural breaks in time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 1-16, January.
- Jushan Bai, 1994.
"Least Squares Estimation Of A Shift In Linear Processes,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 453-472, September.
- Bai, Jushan, 1993. "Least squares estimation of a shift in linear processes," MPRA Paper 32878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Haeran Cho & Piotr Fryzlewicz, 2015. "Multiple-change-point detection for high dimensional time series via sparsified binary segmentation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 77(2), pages 475-507, March.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002.
"Market timing and return prediction under model instability,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group.
- Ting Zhang & Liliya Lavitas, 2018. "Unsupervised Self-Normalized Change-Point Testing for Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 637-648, April.
- Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2015.
"The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 596-620, June.
- Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2011. "The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series," Working Paper series 38_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- BAUWENS, Luc & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2015. "The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecating Macroeconomic Series," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2651, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Rafal Baranowski & Yining Chen & Piotr Fryzlewicz, 2019. "Narrowest‐over‐threshold detection of multiple change points and change‐point‐like features," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 81(3), pages 649-672, July.
- Xiaofeng Shao, 2010. "A self‐normalized approach to confidence interval construction in time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 343-366, June.
- Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2015.
"The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 596-620, June.
- BAUWENS, Luc & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K., 2011. "A comparison of forecasting procedures for macroeconomic series: the contribution of structural break models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen Rombouts, 2011. "A comparison of Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution of Structural Break Models," Working Papers 1113, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Bauwens, Luc & Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2011. "A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-25, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2011. "The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series," Working Paper series 38_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen Rombouts, 2011. "A Comparison of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution of Structural Break Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-13, CIRANO.
- Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2011. "A Comparison of Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Series: the Contribution of Structural Break Models," Cahiers de recherche 1104, CIRPEE.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
- Lawrence Hubert & Phipps Arabie, 1985. "Comparing partitions," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 2(1), pages 193-218, December.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005.
"A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1130-1164, December.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory for Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Working Papers 05-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2015. "Multiple-change-point detection for high dimensional time series via sparsified binary segmentation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Zhou Zhou & Xiaofeng Shao, 2013. "Inference for linear models with dependent errors," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(2), pages 323-343, March.
- Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2014. "Wild binary segmentation for multiple change-point detection," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57146, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Shao, Xiaofeng & Zhang, Xianyang, 2010. "Testing for Change Points in Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(491), pages 1228-1240.
- Xiaofeng Shao, 2015. "Self-Normalization for Time Series: A Review of Recent Developments," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1797-1817, December.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Horváth, Lajos & Rice, Gregory & Zhao, Yuqian, 2023. "Testing for changes in linear models using weighted residuals," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Feiyu Jiang & Zifeng Zhao & Xiaofeng Shao, 2022. "Modelling the COVID‐19 infection trajectory: A piecewise linear quantile trend model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(5), pages 1589-1607, November.
- Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2016.
"Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 555-574, July.
- Seongyeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-020, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2014. "Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-011, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2015.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Cui, Junfeng & Wang, Guanghui & Zou, Changliang & Wang, Zhaojun, 2023. "Change-point testing for parallel data sets with FDR control," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
- Liu, Bin & Zhang, Xinsheng & Liu, Yufeng, 2022. "High dimensional change point inference: Recent developments and extensions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
- Zifeng Zhao & Feiyu Jiang & Xiaofeng Shao, 2022. "Segmenting time series via self‐normalisation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(5), pages 1699-1725, November.
- Kai Wenger & Christian Leschinski & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2019.
"Change-in-mean tests in long-memory time series: a review of recent developments,"
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 103(2), pages 237-256, June.
- Wenger, Kai & Leschinski, Christian & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2017. "Change-in-Mean Tests in Long-memory Time Series: A Review of Recent Developments," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-598, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Break-Point Date Estimation for Nonstationary Autoregressive and Predictive Regression Models," Papers 2308.13915, arXiv.org.
- Kim, Seonjin & Zhao, Zhibiao & Shao, Xiaofeng, 2015. "Nonparametric functional central limit theorem for time series regression with application to self-normalized confidence interval," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 277-290.
- Venkata Jandhyala & Stergios Fotopoulos & Ian MacNeill & Pengyu Liu, 2013. "Inference for single and multiple change-points in time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 423-446, July.
- Jiang, Feiyu & Wang, Runmin & Shao, Xiaofeng, 2023. "Robust inference for change points in high dimension," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
- Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007.
"Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
- Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2004. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Single Break in Linear Time Series Regressions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9hf4j4c2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Hong, Yongmiao & Linton, Oliver & McCabe, Brendan & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2024.
"Kolmogorov–Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range based self-normalization approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
- Hong, Y. & Linton, O. B. & McCabe, B. & Sun, J. & Wang, S., 2023. "Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Testing for Structural Breaks: A New Adjusted-Range Based Self-Normalization Approach," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2316, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hong, Y. & Linton, O. B. & McCabe, B. & Sun, J. & Wang, S., 2023. "Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Testing for Structural Breaks: A New Adjusted-Range Based Self-Normalization Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2367, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2019. "Breaks and the statistical process of inflation: the case of estimating the ‘modern’ long-run Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1455-1475, May.
- Holger Dette & Dominik Wied, 2016. "Detecting relevant changes in time series models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(2), pages 371-394, March.
- Holger Dette & Theresa Eckle & Mathias Vetter, 2020. "Multiscale change point detection for dependent data," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1243-1274, December.
- Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2021. "Change-Point Analysis of Time Series with Evolutionary Spectra," Papers 2106.02031, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
- Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015.
"Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
- Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2013.
"Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 158-167.
- Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2009. "Estimation and Inference in Unstable Nonlinear Least Squares Models," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 126, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2010. "Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models," MPRA Paper 23150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2012. "Estimation and Inference in Unstable Nonlinear Least Squares Models," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 174, Economics, The University of Manchester.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:232:y:2023:i:1:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.