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Multiscale change point detection for dependent data

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  • Holger Dette
  • Theresa Eckle
  • Mathias Vetter

Abstract

In this article we study the theoretical properties of the simultaneous multiscale change point estimator (SMUCE) in piecewise‐constant signal models with dependent error processes. Empirical studies suggest that in this case the change point estimate is inconsistent, but it is not known if alternatives suggested in the literature for correlated data are consistent. We propose a modification of SMUCE scaling the basic statistic by the long run variance of the error process, which is estimated by a difference‐type variance estimator calculated from local means from different blocks. For this modification we prove model consistency for physical‐dependent error processes and illustrate the finite sample performance by means of a simulation study.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Dette & Theresa Eckle & Mathias Vetter, 2020. "Multiscale change point detection for dependent data," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1243-1274, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:47:y:2020:i:4:p:1243-1274
    DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12465
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andreas Anastasiou & Piotr Fryzlewicz, 2022. "Detecting multiple generalized change-points by isolating single ones," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(2), pages 141-174, February.
    3. Anastasiou, Andreas & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2022. "Detecting multiple generalized change-points by isolating single ones," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110258, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2023. "Multiple change point detection under serial dependence: wild contrast maximisation and gappy Schwarz algorithm," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120085, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Cho, Haeran & Kirch, Claudia, 2022. "Bootstrap confidence intervals for multiple change points based on moving sum procedures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. McGonigle, Euan T. & Cho, Haeran, 2023. "Robust multiscale estimation of time-average variance for time series segmentation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

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