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Dynamic decisions under subjective expectations: A structural analysis

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  • An, Yonghong
  • Hu, Yingyao
  • Xiao, Ruli

Abstract

We study dynamic discrete choice models without assuming rational expectations. Agents’ beliefs about state transitions are subjective, unknown, and may differ from their objective counterparts. We show that agents’ preferences and subjective beliefs are identified in both finite and infinite horizon models. We estimate the model primitives via maximum likelihood estimation and demonstrate the good performance of the estimator by Monte Carlo experiments. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, we illustrate our method in an analysis of women’s labor participation. We find that workers do not hold rational expectations about income transitions.

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  • An, Yonghong & Hu, Yingyao & Xiao, Ruli, 2021. "Dynamic decisions under subjective expectations: A structural analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 645-675.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:222:y:2021:i:1:p:645-675
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.046
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2021. "Identification of firms’ beliefs in structural models of market competition," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 5-33, February.
    2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2020. "Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 56(2), pages 203-235, March.
    3. Taiga Tsubota, 2021. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting," Papers 2111.10721, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    4. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    5. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," NBER Working Papers 29291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Yingyao Hu & Yi Xin, 2019. "Identi?cation and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Chao Wang & Stefan Weiergraeber & Ruli Xiao, 2022. "Identification of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting Using a Terminating Action," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-010 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic discrete choice models; Subjective beliefs; Rational expectations; Nonparametric identification; Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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